Rain Sleet and Snow coming to Alabama and Georgia

A chance for wintery weather in the deep south will be coming in Thursday night into Friday morning. Get your cameras ready haha.

Best area for accumulation will be in the norther areas of Alabama and Georgia. There is likely to be no accumulation except on elevated and grassy areas in the central areas of both states as surface temperatures will be to warm.

In areas it will begin as a rain sleet mix and may change to snow briefly. In others areas it may begin as a sleet snow mix and change to all snow. Best time of this, from west to east will be between 3 AM and 10 Am Friday morning.

Georgia Drought Update - Huge Improvement - February 28 2013 #gawx

Heavy rains during February some which were record breaking, have wiped out 'extreme drought conditions' in Georgia and the Southeast. However, Pockets of 'Severe drought' remain in areas of Central and East Georgia extending into Northeast Florida. So even though the southeast had some good rain, drought still persists, and it won't take long if dry conditions move in for drought conditions to increase once again throughout the area.

Some areas of Georgia saw record breaking rainfall amounts. One such area was Columbus Georgia where they saw 13.51 inches of precipitation in February, breaking the record of 9.41 inches for the same period. The 'all time monthly precipitation record' of 13.62 inches in December of 2009 still stands.

Here at my location, my February rainfall total is 13.29 inches. Here are some other Precipitation Totals for February across Georgia

Albany   -   8.77 inches
Athens   -   7.66 inches
Atlanta  -   9.02 inches
Augusta  -   9.40 inches
Columbus -  13.51 inches
Macon    -  13.75 inches
Savannah -   9.75 inches
Valdosta -   5.39 inches

Georgia / Southeast drought January 1 thru February 26 2013




February Rainfall thru Feb. 26 2013

#Snow Georgia / Alabama Saturday February 16 2013 #gawx #alwx

As I have been mentioning most of this week on my Facebook page [ www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather ], there may be snow in the area. This morning my thinking has not changed. In FACT .. the National Weather Service in Peachtree city is now coming on board toward my thinking from past days. They at this time, 5 AM EST Friday February 15 2013 mention a bullseye of Snow of OVER 1 inch, south of Columbus by 1 PM EST Saturday afternoon. They also say less than 1 inch for areas between Atlanta and Columbus around 10 AM EST Saturday Morning. Timing and placement of this is not exact, so I will be monitoring things to narrow it down and posting it on Facebook and tweeting [ twitter.com/cataulagawx ] it when it snows at my location.. Right now I would say between 6 AM and 12 PM Saturday.

As mentioned above and from looking at data, there is indeed a sweet spot or bullseye in central Georgia. Columbus looks to get around 1 inch, and Macon about 2 inches if numerical data from the NAM-06z run is correct.




Athens Georgia should get under 1 inch and Atlanta just over a Tenth of an inch. There isn't much to go around but there could be more or less depending on how things set up and where. It remains to be seen if snow will accumulate on the ground, it will on cars and other surfaces.

Here's a few images showing 06z NAM profiles and Skew-t's for Columbus, Macon, Athens and Atlanta Georgia.










I first mentiond this on Facebook, on February 8 2013 and on this blog February 11 2013 here Possible Snow for Georgia and Alabama February 16/17

597 US Counties Declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought

usda.gov

WASHINGTON, Jan. 9, 2013—Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack today designated 597 counties in 14 states as primary natural disaster areas due to drought and heat, making all qualified farm operators in the areas eligible for low-interest emergency loans. These are the first disaster designations made by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2013.

The 597 counties have shown a drought intensity value of at least D2 (Drought Severe) for eight consecutive weeks based on U.S. Drought Monitor measurements, providing for an automatic designation.

The 597 primary counties designated as disaster areas today correspond to the following states: Alabama, 14; Arkansas, 47; Arizona, 4; Colorado, 30; Georgia, 92; Hawaii, 2; Kansas, 88; Oklahoma, 76; Missouri, 31; New Mexico, 19; Nevada, 9; South Carolina, 11; Texas, 157; and Utah, 17. For more information about the specific state designations, visit the Farm Service Agency's disaster designations page.

Alabama counties declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought are:

Bullock	Cleburne	Henry	Montgomery
Chambers	Coosa	Lee	Randolph
Clay	Elmore	Macon	Russell
Talladega	Tallapoosa

Georgia counties declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought are:

Baker	Dougherty	Laurens	Randolph
Baldwin	Douglas	Lee	Richmond
Bartow	Early	Lincoln	Rockdale
Bibb	Elbert	Lumpkin	Schley
Bleckley	Fannin	McDuffie	Spalding
Burke	Fayette	Macon	Stewart
Butts	Forsyth	Marion	Sumter
Calhoun	Fulton	Meriwether	Talbot
Carroll	Gilmer	Mitchell	Taliaferro
Chattahoochee	Glascock	Monroe	Taylor
Cherokee	Grady	Morgan	Terrell
Clay	Greene	Muscogee	Thomas
Clayton	Hancock	Newton	Troup
Cobb	Haralson	Oconee	Twiggs
Columbia	Harris	Oglethorpe	Union
Coweta	Heard	Paulding	Upson
Crawford	Henry	Peach	Walton
Crisp	Houston	Pickens	Warren
Dawson	Jasper	Pike	Washington
Decatur	Jefferson	Polk	Webster
De Kalb	Johnson	Pulaski	Wilcox
Dodge	Jones	Putnam	Wilkes
Dooly	Lama	Quitman	Wilkinson

[PDF] Drought Disaster Designations Map

[PDF] List of Designated Drought Disaster Counties

Late week system - Severe Weather undetermined Georgia / Alabama

Posted 3:17 PM EST 1/6/2013

Next system looks to come in Thursday and Friday but should see some rain showers before and after. Weather models continue to disagree on timing and strength of system for the local area but as mentioned, at a minimum we should have some thunder in the area.

The GFS is faster with the system and takes it quicker to the north along with the energy associated with it, while the ECMWF is slower and farther south bringing it into the area on Friday.

Still undetermined at this time if there will be any severe weather with this in our area, but will go ahead and 'mention again' the possibility of 'isolated severe' due to the environment associated with this system.

I'll keep watching this and will post again when I know more and closer to weeks end.

Follow @Cataulagawx

Georgia Drought Update - Slight Improvement - January 3 2013

In past weeks a Northeasterly fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has brought much needed rains to the south and southeast, where ripples / shortwaves in the southern jet stream have ejected northward every 3 to 4 days. At this time, the pattern continues with another round of rain this morning in southern areas of both Georgia and Alabama.

Since my last drought report on November 21 2012, some improvement was seen. The main areas to see improvement were in West Central Georgia where Exceptional [D-4] Drought was eliminated and Severe [D2] Drought and D4 pulled back in the vicinity of Athens, Georgia. While improvements where seen, the drought in Georgia remains persistent.

Here's a graphic showing drought conditions in November 2012 on the left and current conditions on the right.

The Drought outlook for the Southeast region of the United States for January through March shows improvement. At this time I agree with this assessment based on time of year. Late fall through Winter is generally the wet season in the southeast and with lower temperatures combined with lower sun and shorter days, is a time for regeneration of soil moisture.

While the outlook is encouraging, the past year [2012] many areas in Georgia ended with a deficit in rainfall. As of December 27 2012, Atlanta saw a deficit of 12.80 inches, Athens 9.73 inches, Columbus 11.48 inches and Macon 13.80 inches.
Here's the current data showing how much rain is needed to end drought conditions across the United States in 3 months. *Note - The end of a drought is defined by a PHDI value of -0.5. Drought amelioration is achieved when a PHDI value of -2.0 is reached.

Temperatures and Precipitation outlooks for the next 6 through 14 days show probabilities of 'both' being 'above average for the southeast US. You can see this HERE

My next Drought post will be in February but I will be Tweeting weekly updates so follow me there .. Follow @Cataulagawx

2012 Weather Year in Review - Georgia and the Southeast

Some of the more interesting weather events of 2012

January 5 2012 - We started the year on a dry note - Georgia Drought Update - January 5 2012

February 14 2012 - Winter Mischief - Winter precipitation Alabama / Georgia - Monday / Tuesday 2/13-2/14/2012

March 5 2012 - Severe Weather - MAP - March 2 2012 Storm Reports - NWS Storm / Tornado survey's

April 27 2012 - Earthquake in Georgia - Magnitude 2.3 Earthquake Appling Georgia April 23 2012

May 14 2012 - We all make mistakes - Well, that was interesting..storms on May 13 2012..Only Human

June 24 2012 - Tropical Storm Debby Dance - Tropical Storm Debby - Track has changed considerably

July 2 2012 - How hot is it ? - Record Breaking Heat in Georgia and Alabama June 29 thru July 1 2012

August 2012 - Tropical Disturbances: To many to choose from during the month, so here is the whole month. August 4 thru 30 2012 Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don't bother clicking through. It's only used to post current data when storms are active.

September 21 2012 - Still Dry - Georgia Drought Update: Long Term Drought Continues

October 2012 - Hurricane Sandy - Hurricance Sandy Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don't bother clicking through. It's only used to post current data when storms are active.

November 21 2012 - Last post of the year on Georgia Drought - No Improvement - Georgia Drought Update - I expect the Drought update for this week [ January 3 2013 ] and the beginning of the new year will show some improvement after recent rains.

December 23 2012 - Forecast for Christmas Storms - Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast - December 25 2012 - While the local area was spared again, others in the southeast were not as lucky.

Monday 12/17/12 Update - Southeast Severe Weather

The possibility of severe storms still exist today for areas in the southeast. Currently [ 5:20 AM EST 12/17/2012 ] seeing some moderate to strong thunderstorms in Southeast Mississippi / Southwest Alabama ahead of the cold front generally heading East-Northeast while the Cold front pushes east.

Radar at 5:20 AM EST

The only thing at this time I see limiting stronger storms developing, some possibly severe, is instability and moisture available ahead of the front. This lack of instability will be on the increase. By early afternoon / mid day Georgia should see storms some of which 'will be severe' begin to fire off. As always, 'Not everyone will see severe weather. I don't think there is enough time this morning for severe storms to break out in south-central Alabama, but may see some later in East Alabama / West Georgia. At the least should see isolated thunderstorms in these areas as morning pushes on. All of this will eventually make it's way to South Carolina later today.

As mentioned the past few days the greatest threat will be 'Damaging winds' associated with the stronger storms. We'll have to keep an eye on things this afternoon onward for the potential for an isolated tornado as well as hail.

Here's the outlook for today issued by the SPC 'valid at 12z - 7 AM EST' this morning. [click image to embiggen]

I likely wont be posting further updates on this here. Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx