Update - Southeast Severe Weather Outlook - 8 AM EST 12/10/12

Severe storms began to fire up in Alabama and Mississippi around 5 AM EST and continue in Mississippi at this time 8:24 AM EST 12/10/2012.

The outlook for the late morning, early afternoon remains about the same as my earlier report. The main threat is strong damaging winds associated with the line of showers and storms ahead of the cold front currently in Mississippi. A 'tornado or two can't be ruled out later as numerous Tornado warnings have been issued today. The severe storms at this time are in South central Mississippi and South east Louisiana.

Throughout the remainder of the day this line of storms 'should weaken' as it pushes east into central and south Alabama and continues into Central and south Georgia. As stated, it 'should weaken' but bears keeping an eye on as it won't take much heating for instability to increase later and combined with adequate wind shear strong storms may develop once again. While my thinking is it will weaken and severe storms will be limited, a few isolated strong storms are possible given the moist unstable environment.

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Severe Weather Possible in Southeast Today and Tonight - October 17 2012

At this time the greatest threat will be Damaging winds, although a few Tornadoes can't be entirely ruled out as this system evolves. Large damaging hail may also be possible with stronger storms.

Severe weather is expected to develop later this evening and continue through the overnight for some areas in the deep south. Storms will begin late this afternoon in areas of Southern Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana continuing southeast into Northeast Louisiana and Northwest Mississippi this evening. By midnight the storms will be across Mississippi from Northeast to Southwest and beginning to move into Northwest Alabama. In the early morning hours weakening is expected as they continue to push through Alabama into Georgia. While weakening is expected they will still need to be watched.

Click Image to Enlarge

During the early evolution of this, storms should be more individual in the form of possible Supercells evolving later into a concentrated line of storms likely forming a squall line where damaging winds will be present. As always not everyone will experience severe storms but conditions will be favorable for them to develop at any time in and around the area. Make sure you continue to monitor this, and make sure your weather radio is in working order.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Twitter. You can follow along here @CataulaGaWX

Severe Storms Four Corners Region / Central & Southern Plains Today and Tomorrow Southern & Central Plains / Mid & Upper Mississippi Valley

Threats: Severe thunderstorms capable of Damaging winds along with hail some large enough to cause damage. A tornado or two can't be ruled out as storms intensify during daylight hours.

Today Friday 10/12 : A strong low pressure system currently centered in the area of Southern Nevada and Northwestern Arizona will continue to move in a east-northeast direction today. Severe storms 'already firing' in eastern Arizona this morning will continue while heading easterly and likely intensify as the day heats up. Also seeing some higher tops in eastern New Mexico Western Texas this morning on the outer periphery of the Low pressure circulation, these will likely continue to build through the day and possibly bring severe storms. A Tornado watch may be issued later today. Some weakening is likely during the overnight hours due to loss of daytime heating, but severe storms are still possible.

Tomorrow Saturday 10/13 : Storms look at this time to be more concentrated than those of Friday. As the Low pressure continues heading east-northeast, areas of the southern and central plains will likely see thunderstorms early Saturday morning which will continue to build through the day while heading for the Upper and lower Mississippi Valley. Later in the day they will likely bring with them severe storms capable of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. As always not everyone will experience severe weather so stay aware of changing conditions. Monitor you local weather offices, television stations and weather radios. We'll have more on this later.

Below are graphics showing areas of concern and possible weather for today 'Friday 10/12/12' and tomorrow 'Saturday 10/13/12'.

Friday October 12 2012

Saturday October 13 2012

Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle on Monday 10/01/2012

Already today [ Sunday 9/30/12 ] there have been 'isolated tornadoes' in Mississippi with damage reported and the threat may continue to increase through this evening for areas in Southeast Louisiana, Southern and Central Mississippi and West Central / Southwest Alabama. Likely the threat of strong storms will continue through the overnight into Monday morning as well.

Looks like at this time the severe threat on Monday will be greatest in the Afternoon through late evening into the early overnight if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms Monday into Tuesday as well. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

Wind shear will be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move from West to East through the area Monday through Monday night and possibly Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. Heavy rain could also be a problem causing Flash Flooding for some due to abundant moisture being pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico over the same areas.


Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012. This will likely shift north in updates issued later as the Low and adjacent fronts continue pushing East and North.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Severe Storms Impacting Alabama and Georgia Tuesday July 31 2012

Severe Storms are already impacting North Alabama at this hour 1:45 AM EDT 7/31/2012. Numerous Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued thus far.

Looking at radar trends the past few hours the overall coverage of the MCS [ Mesoscale Convective System ] storm complex early this morning is yet to fill in, it is still on track to better organize and bring more severe weather to areas in Alabama and Georgia through this morning and the afternoon hours. The greatest threat will be Damaging winds along with hail, heavy rains and copious amounts of lightning as reported via twitter.

The first round of severe weather is as stated currently impacting areas of North Alabama. I feel as though this area will continue to impact this area and to the south in Central Alabama through the early morning hours. I also feel that the activity entering Northern Georgia will intensify in the coming hours and possibly impact the Atlanta area between 6 and 8 AM this morning.

This complex of storms will continue to build and regenerate throughout the day rotating around the eastern fringe of high pressure located to the west. The storm will rotate in a clockwise manner basically training from North to south.

Here is a panel showing Simulated Radar beginning at 5 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012 and running through 5 PM EDT. At this time now 2 AM EDT the simulation has a fairly good handle on what is currently occurring. Click Images to Enlarge.

Here is a graphic showing what I think the movement of the storms will be through the morning and should also occur throughout the day, rotating in the clockwise manner mentioned above.

Here are the most recent graphics issued by the Storm Prediction Center this morning at 2 AM EDT.

Much of the southeast is covered by the 'Slight Risk' category for seeing Severe Storms.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Much of the Southeast has a 15% chance while an elevated risk of 30% exist for south Georgia, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. While hail has been reported early this morning, it remains a low risk of seeing any. Only 5% for the entire area.

######

See the lead up to this event posted Monday July 30 2012 at 5:40 AM EDT here - Georgia / Alabama Possible Severe Storms Tuesday July 31 2012

You can find me on Twitter and Facebook during severe weather events such as this where I post updates and any other time as well. Twitter - https://twitter.com/cataulagawx and Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Georgia / Alabama Possible Severe Storms Tuesday July 31 2012

If the NAM models holds true the local area [Columbus Georgia] may see some rough weather as early as 8 AM Tuesday Morning. At this time 5:34 AM 7/30/2012 it appears North Georgia and the Atlanta Georgia area will get the brunt of the storm at the beginning and then Central Georgia. I'm not 100% sure what may develop. That meaning / being a Mesoscale Convective System [MCS] with a Bow Segment / Squall Line capable of damaging straight line winds or just a very organized Mesoscale complex of strong to severe Thunderstorms also capable of damaging winds. The difference in the two will be the coverage area of a possible damaging wind event with the MCS being the worst more widespread of the two.

Still uncertainty in the timing, development and placement [area affected] of this storm system. Just giving a heads up. A lot can change in 24 hours.

Here's a few of the NAM model images from the 00z run July 30 2012 showing the composite reflectivity [ Simulated Radar] beginning at 2:00 AM EDT Tuesday Morning July 31 through 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012. None of this is set in stone at this time.


2 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

5 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

8 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

11 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

2 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

5 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

AGAIN this is 'provided' the storm develops. At this time the Storm Prediction Center in their day 2 outlook seem to think something will happen. I'll keep an eye on this and will post updates whether bad or good.

Here's the wording from the Storm Prediction center at this time along with the graphics. The next update is scheduled at 1:30 PM today.

EASTERN U.S....

MODELS STILL INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 30+ KT AT 500 MB/ EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...CONTINUE TO DIG AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE...NOW EMERGING FROM THE MONSOONAL REGIME AND PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH THE EASTERN EDGE/NOSE OF HOTTER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF GENERATING SIGNIFICANT FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOLS...AND ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ONE OR TWO STORM CLUSTERS APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...WHERE THE RETURN OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES...IS EXPECTED. STORMS MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BEFORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND GROWS UPSCALE...WHILE TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Severe Weather Potential Friday July 20 2012

The severe threat will primarily be damaging winds, along with frequent to continuous lightning heavy rainfall / downpours which may cause flooding and hail.

At this time 6:10 AM EDT 7/20/2012 the main feature with this system has entered North Alabama and Georgia moving in a south southeast direction. This Mesoscale Convective System is already responsible for a couple Special Weather Statements being issued at this early hour where the primary threat has been winds of 40 to 50 MPH and pea sized hail in North Alabama and Georgia.

This activity will continue for much of the day and may increase during daytime heating. The area affected is generally the same as yesterday that being, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North and South Carolina and Tennessee during early morning. Whether or not the storms will intensify later depends greatly on how much the area destabilizes and the possible interaction with outflow boundaries being pushed south southeast ahead of the main complex.

Here's today's early morning outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlighting the Slight Risk of Severe Storms area. The next scheduled update from The SPC is expected around 9 AM EDT. At that time I will also post an update if warranted. Click Image to Enlarge

Previous Post concerning this posted July 19 at 2:45 PM EDT - Severe Weather Potential Friday July 20 2012 - Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee

Severe Weather Potential Friday July 20 2012 - Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee

This is just a heads up.

While areas in the south / southeast have experienced afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the past days, Friday possibly into Saturday seems to be heading for a more organized threat.

The severe threat will be damaging winds and hail, along with frequent to continuous lightning and heavy rain / downpours.

The timing will be dependent on the arrival of a cold front which is expected to move into the southern states sometime Friday. The arrival of the cold front is uncertain at this time 2:25 PM EDT 7/19/2012. Depending on the arrival time and how much the atmosphere can heat up during the day will be the determining factor on the strength of the potential severe storms.

Also compounding this setup is the coverage area where the more vigorous storms will be. This is also uncertain at this time. The area could expand south and east. This is something we'll have to watch.

We'll know more on this sometime tonight or at the latest tomorrow morning.

Derecho June 29 2012 - Time-lapse video

Time-lapse of closest NEXRAD base reflectivity of the June 29 2012 derecho. The time-lapse moves from Davenport, Iowa to Richmond, Virginia over 14 hours.

Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

7:04 AM 6/4/2012


As mentioned yesterday Sunday, June 3, 2012, storms will be impacting the southeast today. Some areas saw severe storms yesterday, including Tornadoes.

At this time there is a Mesoscale Convective System ongoing in North Mississippi and Alabama. This MCS will continue moving south / southeast through the morning hours. This storm complex is generating severe storms producing damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH, hail to 1.5 inches, dangerous frequent lightning and heavy rain. The individual cells embedded within this complex are moving southeast at a rapid pace of between 45 and 70 MPH. There is also another one behind this one that may impact the same areas during the overnight and into Tuesday June 5.

The tornado threat remains low at this time, but 1 or 2 can not be entirely ruled out due to the nature of the storm system. The main threat will remain strong damaging winds and hail. Instability increases this afternoon where once aging severe weather is expected.

At this time the Storms Prediction Center has large areas in Alabama and Georgia highlighted in a 'slight risk' area. Meaning a better chance of seeing thunderstorms than not.

The SPC also has the same areas from the graphic above highlighted for strong winds and hail.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

There are no severe thunderstorm watches or Tornado watches in effect at this time. This is likely to change at some point this morning due to the evolving cluster of storms. There is a Mesoscale Discussion, which is basically outlining the possibility of some type of Weather Watch being issued. At 6:33 PM EDT, this probability is at 60%. The highlighted area in the graphic is the general area the watch will be issued for.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

See the lead up post on this event, posted on Sunday, June 3, 2012 at 10:49 AM : Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

See updated post on this event here - 7:04 AM 6/4/2012 Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

Threats: The main threat from this round of storms will be 'damaging winds', with some areas also having the potential for seeing some hail. The tornado threat is low at this time.

What: Mesoscale Convective System - The main area of storms that will be pushing through the area will be fairly organized in nature, with stronger storms embedded with the main complex. Storms may develop out ahead of the main system. This will be difficult to determine until the main complex has formed and begins to move through the area.

When: Timing is another factor difficult to determine with a system such as this. At this time, For areas in north Alabama and Georgia, it looks like it will start to become active in the early morning hours on Monday, as early as 5 AM.
Depending on forward motion/speed, Central Alabama and Georgia may begin to see activity around 8 AM peaking in the afternoon and early evening hours. During daytime heating the storms may intensify.
The storms will continue pushing south/southeast through the day and into the overnight hours Monday reaching the southern areas sometime early Tuesday morning.

As with all systems of this nature, not everyone will experience severe weather.

At this time the storm prediction center has the Northern and Central areas of Alabama and Georgia mentioned above highlighted in a 'Slight Risk' for Monday and shifts the 'Slight risk' area to the south for Tuesday. I will continue to monitor the situation for possible upgrade to a 'moderate risk' for these areas depending on storm evolution.

Here's a composite showing the Monday and Tuesday 'slight risk' areas.

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Storm reports on May 31 2012 in Alabama and Georgia

But first ...

While the weather did not become as active as I had anticipated, there were still storm damage reports. As I mentioned in my previous post, I did expect some storms to fire up in Alabama, and they did. As they moved east towards the local area in Georgia, the atmosphere became more stable, limiting their strength. I also mentioned this may be a possibility in my previous post. However, once the shortwave that was responsible for thee storms moved through the area, they regenerated somewhat and did bring more storms to Georgia.

Today I still expect some storms, possibly severe, to pop up in Georgia as the cold front pushes through. I do believe the eastern areas of the state will see the best chance of seeing severe storms, but I wouldn't completely rule one out state wide. The weather is like a women, you never know what shes capable of. [No offense to the ladies out there :)]

While there were no reported Tornadoes in Alabama or Georgia, or tornado warnings issued, there were a couple tornado warnings to our west in Mississippi. SO far no confirmation on if these tornado warned storms produced tornadoes or not.

Here's a graphic showing the storms reports on May 31 2012. The report generated was from 12:00 AM Thursday May 31 thru Friday morning June 1 2012 12:30 AM.

Here's the text of the storm reports in Alabama and Georgia.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
909 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

0413 PM  TSTM WND GST  2 NW MONTGOMERY  32.38N 86.31W
05/31/2012  M58 MPH  MONTGOMERY AL  BROADCAST MEDIA
ON RSA CAMERA IN DOWNTOWN MONTGOMERY.

0418 PM  TSTM WND DMG  MONTGOMERY  32.35N 86.28W
05/31/2012 MONTGOMERY AL   BROADCAST MEDIA
TREES REPORTED DOWN IN MULTIPLE NEIGHBORHOODS ACROSS MONTGOMERY.

0630 PM  TSTM WND DMG  6 SSE YORK  32.42N 88.27W
05/31/2012  SUMTER AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

+++++

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1125 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

0508 PM  TSTM WND DMG  1 SE LOUISVILLE  32.99N 82.40W
05/31/2012  JEFFERSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ALONG MOORE STREET.

0510 PM  TSTM WND DMG  LOUISVILLE  33.00N 82.41W
05/31/2012 JEFFERSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN BLOCKING U.S. HWY 1.

0517 PM   HAIL  ELLIJAY  34.69N 84.48W
05/31/2012  E0.75 INCH  GILMER GA   EMERGENCY MNGR
EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL ON ZEBLIN ROAD.

0750 PM  TSTM WND DMG  THOMASTON  32.89N 84.33W
05/31/2012  UPSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 5 TREES DOWN IN THE THOMASTON AREA.

0800 PM  TSTM WND DMG  MOLENA  33.01N 84.50W
05/31/2012  PIKE GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 2 TREES DOWN IN THE MOLENA AREA.

0815 PM  TSTM WND DMG  6 W ZEBULON  33.09N 84.44W
05/31/2012  PIKE GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 1 TREE DOWN IN CONCORD.

0828 PM  TSTM WND DMG  EATONTON  33.33N 83.39W
05/31/2012  PUTNAM GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED SEVERAL TREES AND A FEW POWER LINES DOWN IN 
THE CITY OF EATONTON.

0903 PM  TSTM WND DMG  3 W SHOULDERBONE  33.34N 83.13W
05/31/2012  HANCOCK GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN NEAR THE PUTNAM-HANCOCK COUNTY LINE.

0918 PM  TSTM WND DMG  ETHRIDGE   33.16N 83.44W
05/31/2012  JONES GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN IN THE ETHRIDGE AREA.

0923 PM  TSTM WND DMG  WHITE PLAINS  33.47N 83.04W
05/31/2012  GREENE  GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN IN THE WHITE PLAINS AREA.

Strong to Severe Storms Georgia / Alabama - 5/31-6/1 2012

Friday looks to be an active day for weather. We might even see some strong storms Thursday night in Alabama before the storms arrive in Georgia sometime Friday.

At this time the greatest threats with the strong to severe storms will be Hail from pea size up to quarter size, Strong Damaging winds to 50+ MPH, Heavy rains and frequent lightning. I will also add that there is a small chance of a Tornado due to variables with the approaching system and individual storm cells should they develop.

While the threat of a tornado is small, it can not be entirely ruled out. The reason for this is due to what may happen with the stronger storms [ See Link - Confirmed Tornado Lee County Alabama on May 13 2012 ]. While the best energy for Tornadoes will be to our north in Georgia and farther north, strong storms which will be coming through will be capable of spinning up quick small short lived tornadoes. I wont rule out a small tornado Thursday or Friday at some point and time in Alabama or Georgia.

At this time, it looks like Thunderstorms will increase Thursday Night, and there is the possibility some of them could be severe. Early Friday morning in the early AM hours there may still be some active storms around. Not as active as with day time heating, but still some could be strong.

On Friday as the day heats up, storms should get a little stronger by mid afternoon and continue into the night. The exact timing is not set in stone. Other factors will also be in play that may help storms begin earlier or later, be weaker or stronger, such as cloud cover and or atmosphere stabilization / destabilization from the earlier storms to our west.

Just a reminder ... Not everyone will see a severe storm. Not everyone will experience hail and high winds. Not everyone will see a Tornado. No one knows to pin point accuracy when and where any of this may happen during the event.

I'll have another update later.

Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012 - Updated Graphics

Greatest overall threat remains Damaging Large Hail and Strong Damaging Wind for much of the Southeast.

The Storm Prediction Center has updated their graphics. The updates include adding a portion of Mississippi to the Slight Risk area, and a small portion of Central Florida in a 5% Tornado risk area. Most of the Southeast continues to be in the slight risk area of severe thunderstorms and the 2% risk area of seeing a tornado.

The biggest changes from earlier this morning are the Wind and Hail risk areas which were at 15%.

SPC 9 AM EDT Day 1 Outlook increases Damaging Wind Prob to 30% All of Georgia, Much of Alabama and Florida panhandle.
SPC 9 AM EDT Day 1 Outlook increases Large Hail Prob to 30% for Areas in North/Central Georgia, Alabama , NE Mississippi. and SE Tennessee.

You can see the previous outlook on the blog here

Updated Graphics via the Storm Prediction Center

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Widespread Severe Weather Expected Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012

First and foremost ... The main threat will be north of the local area, but the possibility remains for strong to severe storms.

As in all of my posts of this nature, this is not meant to alarm you, but to give you a heads up as to what may be heading to your area. I try real hard not to overstate a situation like this. On the same note, I will not downplay a severe risk either. If what I tell you fails to materialize, that's a good thing.

Okay, on with the show....

Around 11 PM last night after looking very quickly at data I became more concerned with what I saw from earlier. So much so I posted this on Facebook so my Columbus Georgia area followers would be aware of what may happen with the coming storms.

Listen up ... I am becoming more concerned for the local area after taking a quick peek at some data. While I still believe at this time it will not be as bad as areas to our north [that's a given], I do believe it will become quite active around here. I will be looking at more data in the hours to come and will have a blog update tomorrow moring. Always be weather alert even if a tornado threat isn't as high where you live !!

Some of my followers became alarmed and this was my reply.

I do believe as mentioned things may get active around here. What that will bring is anyone's guess. Down here the risks will not be a widespread as in areas to our north. There is still a chance of seeing isolated severe storms down here, and from what I looked at earlier that chance has increased from what I looked at even earlier. The timing looks like the most severe will come through in the AM hours of Saturday morning providing what I looked at holds together. Before this time stronger storms are possible. My concern is not meant to say Tornadoes will be a sure thing in the local area, only that the chances are now enhanced from my earlier thinking

I stand by my earlier thoughts.

Possibly verifying my thoughts is this from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning

GULF STATES...

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT APPEARS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE AS WIND SHIFT ENCOUNTERS MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF STATES. SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS.

Possibly enhancing this is something I mentioned yesterday, a secondary low forming south of the main low. You can see this second low clearly in this graphic on the Texas / Oklahoma border.

[ Graphic from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Weather Service ]

Also of concern along with this is a 'Dry Line' tailing south from this second low as seen on this surface map issued this morning at 2:29 AM EST. This may also provide enhancement to the system allowing more warm moist air to feed in providing fuel.

This is very serious situation yet to unfold for many areas of the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf coast and East to the Carolinas.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning

Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.

Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Red Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

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I'll be getting some sleep and will be back monitoring the situation around 4 PM EST today.

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Watching the Storm setup for Friday 3/2 and Saturday 3/3/2012

Wow .. what a wild couple of days we've already had, and it's not officially Spring yet !!

Here's a look at the Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings issued from February 29 at 12 AM thru March 1 2012 at 4 AM.

The reason I show you the above is because we have a similar setup beginning Friday into the weekend. My thinking at this time is, the area with the greatest coverage of Warned storms in the image above will likely shift south of where it was. To include Arkansas in the mid-west. In the south and southeast .. Tennessee, North Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia into South and North Carolina as the system progresses to the east. Hopefully like this last system, the deep south will be spared.

It's really difficult to tell at this time where and what this system will do. The main feature with this evolving system hasn't been on land out west long enough for models to really get a grasp on it. As you may have guessed, some models show it stronger while others don't. Some show it slower, while others faster. Some even hint at a secondary low forming south of the main low. All in all we're going to have to wait a bit longer to really know where it will go. One thing we do know regardless of where it goes, it will produce more severe weather. Just as models differ on timing and placement, Bufkit model data varies with strength. Some models show it being a low cape high shear event, while others have high cape and modest shear.

So ... as with other systems, we'll know more at a later time. For now, here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 1:52 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning This will change over the next day as the maps are reissued.

Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Severe Storms Red Area.

Probabilistic Outlook : Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

Here is one section of wording that caught my eye while reading the outlook that accompanied the graphics above :

NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

Thats quite impressive !!
Translation : Numerous SEVERE wind events are possible along with potential for STRONG tornadoes from either supercells or Quasi Linear Convective Systems mechanisms. At least a few wind events AT OR ABOVE 65 KT [ 75.95 MPH ] and long-track significant tornadoes are possible. - For simplicity, A Quasi Linear Convective Systems is a bow echo capable of producing straight line winds.

Some folks may also have to deal with flooding issues. Here's the 3 day rainfall prediction valid thru Sunday from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

I'll have an update on this later; so check back !

Southeast Strong to Severe Storms Wednesday/Thursday 2/29/-3/01/2012

Not changing from my earlier thinking on the frontal passage today and tonight. See previous post HERE.

Still looking like the best chance of seeing severe storms will be from Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia Northward and into the Carolinas later this evening, tonight.

Areas south of Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia will mainly see Thunderstorms, however, a strong to possible severe storm can not be ruled out at this time. The biggest threat with any of the stronger storms will be damaging winds.

A higher risk exists in the Northern most areas of these states into the Tennessee Valley, Western North Carolina and possibly the Upstate of South Carolina later tonight early Thursday morning. A tornado or two in these areas are possible as we have seen earlier today to the west and north.

Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued 3 PM EST today, valid through tonight outlining the areas at risk mentioned above.

Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.

Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Hatched Area / Yellow/Red : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area.

Hail Outlook Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area.

Update 1 - Latest on Storms Saturday 2/18 and Sunday 2/19

Update #1 - 4:00 PM EST 2/18/2012

Quick Update to show the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center this afternoon. The changes are subtle but do impact the local area and much of the southeast. For previous graphics see 'original post' below.

The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.

Slight Risk : Now includes Most of West Central Georgia over towards Macon in Central Georgia and South Towards Albany.

Tornado Probability : The local area including Columbus GA. and Phenix City Al is at a 2% risk of seeing a Tornado with the 5% area now encroaching on the southern counties in the local area.

Wind Probability : The local area including Columbus GA. and Phenix City Al. south towards Albany is now well within a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with a 5% Risk covering much of Georgia back into Alabama. The 30% risk area has shifted slightly northeast.

Hail Probability : The local area including Columbus GA., much of Central GA towards Macon and Phenix City Al. and much of central Alabama is at a 5% risk of seeing large hail.

Per the SPC concerning this update:

ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL GA WHERE THE GFS MOVES A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...A TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL GA.

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Original Post at 9:38 AM EST 2/18/2012

The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.

I will add, looking at models today, it seems the threat for really severe storms has diminished somewhat. This does not mean that one or more will not occur so don't let your guard down.


Looking at soundings from the RUC this morning for 6 AM Saturday through 12 AM Sunday morning [ 18 hrs sounding ], looks like any stronger storms will hold off until this evening around 4 PM EST. This particular model is indicating at this time stronger storms late this evening. One such storm is possible around 10 PM EST. The Hodograph for this particular storm is showing Zero CAPE, Helicity 782 and Shear 59 m/s. As mentioned yesterday, this system is a low CAPE, moderate to high Shear event and this sounding shows that well.

The NAM sounding shows stronger storms holding off until around 6 PM EST, building through the evening where around 10 PM EST one of the possible stronger storms will push through, having Zero CAPE, Helicity 799 and Shear 52 m/s.

The GFS3 sounding shows stronger storms holding off until around 6 PM EST as well, then building through the evening where around 12 AM EST Sunday Morning one of the possible stronger storms will push through, having Zero CAPE, Helicity 775 and Shear 50 m/s.

All in all possible stronger storms should arrive in the area this evening around 5 PM EST. Continuing through the evening with stronger storms around 11 PM EST Saturday night continuing through the overnight into early morning hours of Sunday. Accompanying these thunderstorms will be lots of rain with the GFS showing storm totals of over 3 inches.


Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center this morning....

Slight Risk : Extends north into the southern local area, including Columbus.

Tornado Probability : The Southern local area including Columbus is at a 2% risk of a Tornado.

Wind Probability : The local area including Columbus south is at a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with a 5% Risk covering the rest of the local area.

Hail Probability : The local area including Columbus, south and west of the city is at a 5% risk.

Here is this mornings outlook from the NWS Peachtree City, GA

Day One...Today and Tonight... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of central Georgia. Synopsis... A strong storm system will move out of Texas and into the southeast United States through tonight. Primary Hazards... The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes...damaging winds...large hail and lightning. The area of concern is along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon to Louisville and between midnight tonight and 7 am Sunday morning. Discussion... A ridge of high pressure will strengthen over north and central Georgia today as rain spreads across the state today. The strength of the ridge will depend on how far north a warm front will move into central Georgia tonight. At this time the warm front is expected to reach a Columbus to Macon to Louisville line late tonight. Areas south of the warm front will destabilize with capes reaching 600. Significant shear coupled with the relatively high capes and dewpoints in the lower 60s will be sufficient for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop after midnight tonight.

And the excessive rainfall outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

As is the case when severe weather threatens the area, I will be posting updates on Facebook and Twitter as much as I can and to the best of my ability.

My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Previous posts :

Thursday, February 16, 2012 - Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Severe Weather Threat still on track Saturday / Sunday for Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012