Possibility of Southeast Severe Weather Saturday thru Monday - December 15 2012

It seems our Second Severe Season has arrived albeit a bit late. Normally the fall severe weather begins in Mid to late November in the southeast. November this year was quite with the exception of a potential severe weather event in the southeast that never materialized during the Nov. 11^th thru 13^th time frame. If you were around this past week you may recall the Storms and Tornadoes in the Southeast on December 10 2012. on with the show ...

This coming bout of potential Severe weather will begin Late Saturday in the ARK-LA-MISS area shifting east with time into Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. There remains uncertainty with the system as to timing and how strong storms may become due to how strong the upper level low pressure expected to develop in the northern tiers of this region becomes. The stronger the ULL, the more moisture it will pull north from the Gulf of Mexico into an already somewhat unstable air mass closer to the coast and extending northward. Regardless, am expecting some strong storms with isolated severe at this time throughout the region beginning today thru Monday again spreading west to east. Right now [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] confidence is somewhat LOW to the severe side based on how much cloud cover and rain occurs ahead of the frontal system in the warm sector.

Threats with this system will be in the form of Isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for a few Tornadoes with stronger storms possible. While the threat of tornadoes looks low at this time, a couple can't be entirely ruled out due to increasing shear layer to layer which may became surface based over time supporting Bowing Line areas capable of Damaging Straight Line winds and Isolated Supercells which may spawn a Tornado. There is also a threat of Flash Flooding in areas with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. As always .. not everyone will experience severe storms.

Today through Tomorrow morning the main threat will be the possibility of Damaging winds associated with strong thunderstorms that may develop generally in the afternoon and evening hours continuing through the overnight. ... On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday. On Sunday the Storm Prediction Center at this time [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] has an area highlighted for an elevated risk for strong to severe storms. We'll see how this area looks later today for possible increase in severity or even a decrease. For now here is what they have for Sunday Morning through Monday Morning. [click image to embiggen]

Here's the anticipated Rain Amounts Today through Tuesday Morning

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Severe Weather Possible in Southeast Today and Tonight - October 17 2012

At this time the greatest threat will be Damaging winds, although a few Tornadoes can't be entirely ruled out as this system evolves. Large damaging hail may also be possible with stronger storms.

Severe weather is expected to develop later this evening and continue through the overnight for some areas in the deep south. Storms will begin late this afternoon in areas of Southern Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana continuing southeast into Northeast Louisiana and Northwest Mississippi this evening. By midnight the storms will be across Mississippi from Northeast to Southwest and beginning to move into Northwest Alabama. In the early morning hours weakening is expected as they continue to push through Alabama into Georgia. While weakening is expected they will still need to be watched.

Click Image to Enlarge

During the early evolution of this, storms should be more individual in the form of possible Supercells evolving later into a concentrated line of storms likely forming a squall line where damaging winds will be present. As always not everyone will experience severe storms but conditions will be favorable for them to develop at any time in and around the area. Make sure you continue to monitor this, and make sure your weather radio is in working order.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Twitter. You can follow along here @CataulaGaWX

Storm Reports Across the Southeast April 5/6 2012 - Map

While the local area was spared from severe weather once again, other areas in the southeast weren't as lucky.

In Georgia Hail was reported in many areas. The largest being 1 inch. Wind damage was also reported, but no estimated speed was given in reports. Locally [ Columbus GA ] there was a report of Pea Size Hail and No wind damage that I'm aware of in the area.

In Alabama like most areas reporting severe weather in the Southeast, Hail was the most reported. The largest Hail reported in Alabama was 1.75 inches. There were a few wind reports in Alabama downing trees, with the strongest being estimated at 67 MPH. Alabama also had reports of flash flooding in the north and a couple reports of Lightning damage.

Other areas in the southeast reported severe weather as well. South Carolina, North Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas and Tennessee. All reported Hail and Wind, with a Funnel cloud reported in Louisiana and an unconfirmed report of a Tornado in the bootheel of Missouri and another Tornado being reported numerous times in Missouri as well.

Here's a map of storm reports April 5 12Am thru April 6 3AM. Most reports were on April 5 2012.

Here's another map showing Hail reports of 2 inches or larger and Winds 65KT [74.8 MPH] or stronger and Tornado reports April 5 2012.

You can see my posts leading up to this event :

Tuesday, April 3, 2012 - Georgia / Alabama Potential Severe Storms Weds/Thurs April 4/5 2012

Wednesday, April 4, 2012 - Alabama / Georgia Severe potential LOW Thurs/Fri April 5/6 2012

3:30 AM Thursday, April 5, 2012 - Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

10:23 AM Thursday, April 5, 2012 - Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012 - Updated Graphics

Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

Still expecting some thunderstorms to meet or exceed severe criteria.

As mentioned yesterday the greatest overall threats still remain Hail, gusty wind and frequent lightning with any of the stronger storms. I will now include a small risk of a Tornado or two somewhere in the southeast as mentioned on April 3rd.

While the overall categorical outlook remains unchanged form yesterday which included much of the southeast from The Gulf coast north through Central Louisiana, north into Missouri and then east to a small area in south Illinois, through the southern half of Kentucky and a small area in southwest Virginia, continuing east through North Carolina to the east coast, the Slight Risk of severe storms has shifted farther north and west.

The Slight risk area yesterday April 4th included Southeast Mississippi into South Alabama a portion of South Georgia and Much of Florida. It NOW covers ALL of Georgia and Alabama, much of Florida and South Carolina, Most of Central Mississippi north and south towards Alabama, Much of Tennessee and a small area in Southwest North Carolina.

I have reinserted a small Tornado threat for the southeast due to the fact the Storm Prediction Center has now included it in the updated graphics as of 2:00 AM EDT 4/5/2012. The areas mentioned above in the 'slight risk area' are also covered by this 2% tornado probability area.

As mentioned above, the greatest threats form any severe storms that may develop will come from Hail and Gusty winds. The areas mentioned above covered by the categorical outlook [in Green] are included in the risk areas for hail and wind.

The overall Hail risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

The overall Wind risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

Here are expected rain amounts April 5 through April 10..

To reiterate ... greatest threats will be Hail and Gusty winds from any strong thunderstorm that may develop and a small chance of a Tornado.


As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


P.S. : I see Tornado watches have been issued [at 1:55 AM EDT] for areas in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi until 9 AM CDT. I expect this will be expanded or shifted east as the day goes on.

Southeast / Gulf coast - Strong storms possible Saturday March 31 2012

The biggest threat form any severe storms should they develop will be strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and hail.

Some possible strong to isolated severe storms today. Like yesterday, it depends on where you are. Noticed a feature late Thursday night as it came off the Texas coast. I thought, here we go and not even hurricane season yet. Looked real tropical the other day, now really more of an upper level disturbance. If it were a surface based low, we might be looking at some wild weather. Since, it is more of a meso convective system as it moved into the area and is now located in Mississippi. It will enhance showers to our south and central areas of Alabama and Georgia. We also have a trough moving down from the north which will affect areas in north Alabama and Georgia. We're stuck somewhat in the middle of these two features in central Alabama and Georgia, and they will provide us with some unsettled weather today.

Already seeing some showers and storms developing in central and south Alabama early this morning on radar [ 5:50 AM EDT 3/31/2012 ]. You can clearly see the MCV rotating along the gulf coast in Mississippi heading for the Mobile area in Alabama. Not seeing much progression to the north with this feature at this time. Expect it will slowly continue it's northeast movement and by this afternoon affect central and Southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

The storm prediction center has and area highlighted with a slight chance of severe storms today from central Alabama to the west in northern Louisiana, east Arkansas and southwest Tennessee.

It's possible later in the evening North and South Carolina will be affected by these storms.