Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

Still expecting some thunderstorms to meet or exceed severe criteria.

As mentioned yesterday the greatest overall threats still remain Hail, gusty wind and frequent lightning with any of the stronger storms. I will now include a small risk of a Tornado or two somewhere in the southeast as mentioned on April 3rd.

While the overall categorical outlook remains unchanged form yesterday which included much of the southeast from The Gulf coast north through Central Louisiana, north into Missouri and then east to a small area in south Illinois, through the southern half of Kentucky and a small area in southwest Virginia, continuing east through North Carolina to the east coast, the Slight Risk of severe storms has shifted farther north and west.

The Slight risk area yesterday April 4th included Southeast Mississippi into South Alabama a portion of South Georgia and Much of Florida. It NOW covers ALL of Georgia and Alabama, much of Florida and South Carolina, Most of Central Mississippi north and south towards Alabama, Much of Tennessee and a small area in Southwest North Carolina.

I have reinserted a small Tornado threat for the southeast due to the fact the Storm Prediction Center has now included it in the updated graphics as of 2:00 AM EDT 4/5/2012. The areas mentioned above in the 'slight risk area' are also covered by this 2% tornado probability area.

As mentioned above, the greatest threats form any severe storms that may develop will come from Hail and Gusty winds. The areas mentioned above covered by the categorical outlook [in Green] are included in the risk areas for hail and wind.

The overall Hail risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

The overall Wind risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

Here are expected rain amounts April 5 through April 10..

To reiterate ... greatest threats will be Hail and Gusty winds from any strong thunderstorm that may develop and a small chance of a Tornado.


As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


P.S. : I see Tornado watches have been issued [at 1:55 AM EDT] for areas in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi until 9 AM CDT. I expect this will be expanded or shifted east as the day goes on.

Thunderstorms and Showers for the Southeast - Week of March 19 thru 24 2012

My thinking based on current material:

A slow moving cold front currently impacting areas of Texas north into Iowa will slowly move east through the week. Right now [ 11:12 AM EDT 3/19/2012 ] storms are beginning to fire along the front with the potential for severe weather including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches will likely be issued at some point this afternoon for areas in Texas and points north.

Current Map March 19

The low pressure responsible for this front will according to models become a closed upper level low. Until this happens it will continue to pull colder air from the north and warm air from the south, leading to an unstable air mass. Once the low closes off it will continue to draw warm moist air from the gulf of Mexico region. This warm moist air combined with daytime heating will then provide the opportunity for strong storms to continue developing over the next few days through Wednesday as the front ever so slowly moves east through Louisiana. There is the potential for some of these storms to become severe where damaging winds, hail and even a tornado can not be ruled out.

Wednesday March 21

By Thursday morning the cold front will be in or around Western Mississippi with the upper level low remaining back in Oklahoma. At this time there is still the potential for strong to severe storms but to a lesser degree from previous days. During daytime heating some of these storms will have the potential to turn severe where again damaging winds, hail and even a tornado can not be ruled out.

Thursday March 22

By Friday morning the cold front will be in or around western Alabama. The closed upper level low will by then have moved slightly east into the Missouri area. To the south in Alabama areas of showers with possible storms developing during daytime heating will be the rule. Some of the stronger storms may have the potential to become severe. As this is 4 days away it is unclear how the storm system will continue to evolve so we'll have to watch this.

Friday March 23

Farther to the north in areas of Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio things may be a little more interesting during this same time. While the cold from continues to trail from Indiana south through Alabama, a weak warm front will have continued to push north. Also of interest in an occluded front trailing back to the upper level low back in Missouri. This will create and area for potential strong to severe storms as the cold air overtakes the warm sector. Also of note in this area will be the different wind profiles or wind direction in which a quick spin up tornado cant be ruled out.

By Saturday morning the cold front will be pushing through Georgia, western areas of North and South Carolina continuing north through the Virginia's. The upper level low at this time will be positioned in or around Indiana or Ohio. By this time most of the energy will have been lost and things should be relatively quite from North Carolina southward. To the North in Virginia it may still be a little unsettled with strong thunderstorms still possible.

Saturday March 24

All of the above is provided things remain true to current modeling and thinking. I'll continue watching this system throughout the week and should things change will post an update.


Here's a look at the potential rainfall associated with this system beginning Today March 19 thru Saturday morning March 24.