Showing posts with label August 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label August 2011. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Invest AL93 Gulf of Mexico - Where is it going ? August 31 2011
The early computer models dont have a clue at this time. Just a little eye candy...
Tropical Disturbance possible Gulf of Mexico - Katia in the Atlantic - Computer Models
Models differ widely on the development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Some bring the system in to Texas, while others bring it in to Louisiana and still others take it across north Florida and up the eastern seaboard. The only consensus, something will form in the Gulf Of Mexico.
Here is a run from the 06z GFS this morning at 72 hours out for September 3 2011. notice where the system is located in the gulf and a tightly rapped Hurricane Katia in the Atlantic. -
Here is the 00z UKMET for the same time frame, notice the system in the gulf a little farther west and south -
The 00z GGEM at 84 Hours for September 3 2011 shows the system impacting Texas -
The 00z Euro running slower at 168 hours for September 7 2011 still has the system in the gulf -
The NOGAPS running even slower developing the system in the Gulf of Mexico, showing it down around the Bay of Campeche at 108 hours September 4 2011 and dropping it all together for the next couple of runs.
These models agree that something will form in the Gulf of Mexico. They also show very well what will become Hurricane Katia still out in the Atlantic as late as September 7 2011. Where and what Katia will do is still open to interpretation, but models suggest she will miss the U.S. at this time.
Here is a run from the 06z GFS this morning at 72 hours out for September 3 2011. notice where the system is located in the gulf and a tightly rapped Hurricane Katia in the Atlantic. -
Here is the 00z UKMET for the same time frame, notice the system in the gulf a little farther west and south -
The 00z GGEM at 84 Hours for September 3 2011 shows the system impacting Texas -
The 00z Euro running slower at 168 hours for September 7 2011 still has the system in the gulf -
The NOGAPS running even slower developing the system in the Gulf of Mexico, showing it down around the Bay of Campeche at 108 hours September 4 2011 and dropping it all together for the next couple of runs.
These models agree that something will form in the Gulf of Mexico. They also show very well what will become Hurricane Katia still out in the Atlantic as late as September 7 2011. Where and what Katia will do is still open to interpretation, but models suggest she will miss the U.S. at this time.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Tropics Update August 29 2011 - Irene - Jose - TD12[Katia]
Post Tropical Irene: Irene continues to track North-Northeast at about 25MPH with Sustained winds of 35MPH, about 100 miles northwest of Houlton Maine. Current position 47.4N 68.8W with a central pressure of 981 millibars. The remaining threat from former hurricane Irene will be rain which may cause flooding.
Tropical Storm Jose: Update: 1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011...JOSE DISSIPATES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...REMNANTS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
Jose is currently tracking North at 23MPH with sustained winds of 40MPH and poses no threat to any landmass, and is expected to lose it's tropical characteristics sometime later today. Current position 37.2N 64.7W 340 miles North of Bermuda, 515 miles South of Nova Scotia, with a central pressure of 1008 millibars.
Tropical Depression 12 [formerly AL92]: As mentioned earlier, this is the tropical system we will be watching in the coming days, week, provided another more robust system doesn't form in the near.
Tropical depression 12 really kicked it into high gear last night and early today. Yesterday she was given only a 40% chance of developing in to a depression.
Currently located at 9.4N 26.3W or about 395 miles South-Southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, moving West at about 15MPH, with sustained winds of 35MPH and a central pressure of 1009 millibars. TD12 should become a tropical storm sometime today, if not, when she does she will be named Tropical Storm Katia.
Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast track as of 5 AM EDT Monday August 29 2011 -
TD12 5amedt August 29 2011
Here are a couple Model plots for Tropical Depression 12 / Tropical Storm Katia -
TD12 2amedt August 29 2011
TD12 636amedt August 29 2011
It is much to early to tell what or where soon to become Hurricane Katia will go. Should Katia continue on the NHC forecast track she may, and I stress this, Katia 'may' impact the east coast of the U.S. Katia may well recurve, being a fish storm and impact no land what so ever. As stated, to early to know at this time and still at a minimum 2 weeks away. I'll be watching.
Tropical Storm Jose: Update: 1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011...JOSE DISSIPATES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...REMNANTS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
Jose is currently tracking North at 23MPH with sustained winds of 40MPH and poses no threat to any landmass, and is expected to lose it's tropical characteristics sometime later today. Current position 37.2N 64.7W 340 miles North of Bermuda, 515 miles South of Nova Scotia, with a central pressure of 1008 millibars.
Tropical Depression 12 [formerly AL92]: As mentioned earlier, this is the tropical system we will be watching in the coming days, week, provided another more robust system doesn't form in the near.
Tropical depression 12 really kicked it into high gear last night and early today. Yesterday she was given only a 40% chance of developing in to a depression.
Currently located at 9.4N 26.3W or about 395 miles South-Southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, moving West at about 15MPH, with sustained winds of 35MPH and a central pressure of 1009 millibars. TD12 should become a tropical storm sometime today, if not, when she does she will be named Tropical Storm Katia.
Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast track as of 5 AM EDT Monday August 29 2011 -
TD12 5amedt August 29 2011
Here are a couple Model plots for Tropical Depression 12 / Tropical Storm Katia -
TD12 2amedt August 29 2011
TD12 636amedt August 29 2011
It is much to early to tell what or where soon to become Hurricane Katia will go. Should Katia continue on the NHC forecast track she may, and I stress this, Katia 'may' impact the east coast of the U.S. Katia may well recurve, being a fish storm and impact no land what so ever. As stated, to early to know at this time and still at a minimum 2 weeks away. I'll be watching.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Tropical Storm Jose forms, Irene weakens, AL92 Tropical Wave off Africa
Computer Models / Graphics
Tropical Systems August 28 2011
Irene : Irene continues to weaken, now a Tropical Storm so we wont talk about her other than to mention that.
AL92 is the one we need to watch in the coming days, week ....
AL92 : via National Hurricane Center
AL92 836amedt August 28 2011
Tropical Storm Jose : At this time Tropical Storm Jose posses no threat to the east coast of the U.S. Jose is expected to track north in the coming days. via NHC -
Jose 836amedt august 28 2011
Tropical Systems August 28 2011
Irene : Irene continues to weaken, now a Tropical Storm so we wont talk about her other than to mention that.
AL92 is the one we need to watch in the coming days, week ....
AL92 : via National Hurricane Center
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AL92 836amedt August 28 2011
Tropical Storm Jose : At this time Tropical Storm Jose posses no threat to the east coast of the U.S. Jose is expected to track north in the coming days. via NHC -
AT 800 AM AST 1200 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY AND JOSE SHOULD WEAKEN ON MONDAY.
Jose 836amedt august 28 2011
Hurricane Irene Update - Position at 5 AM EDT August 27 2011
As hurricane Irene continues to push northward, the biggest threat will be sporadic high wind and copious amounts of rain which will cause flooding. At the time of this writing, estimates of 1-2 to 3 million are without electrical power depending on which source you query. I'm sure this will increase as the day and hurricane Irene progress. Latest reports on deaths from Irene that I saw stand at 10, with 2 of those being children.
At this time Hurricane Irene made landfall 'again' at 5:35 a.m. EDT along the coast of New Jersey near Little Egg Inlet. The estimated intensity at landfall was 75 mph. Irene will make another landfall later this morning likely on Long Island NY around West Islip, however the Weather Channel [ Stephanie Abrams ] live at 6AM EDT stated landfall will be in Manhattan NY. Here is the current information on Irene as of 5 AM EDT --
This will likely be my last post on the position of Irene. I may compile some images and videos at a later date, no promises. I will look for final totals on damage and death and may post them for the record at a later date.
At this time Hurricane Irene made landfall 'again' at 5:35 a.m. EDT along the coast of New Jersey near Little Egg Inlet. The estimated intensity at landfall was 75 mph. Irene will make another landfall later this morning likely on Long Island NY around West Islip, however the Weather Channel [ Stephanie Abrams ] live at 6AM EDT stated landfall will be in Manhattan NY. Here is the current information on Irene as of 5 AM EDT --
Here is the current position on the map as of 5AM EDT -HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...IRENE MOVING ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR NEW YORK CITY AND INLAND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.2N 74.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
This will likely be my last post on the position of Irene. I may compile some images and videos at a later date, no promises. I will look for final totals on damage and death and may post them for the record at a later date.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Hurricane Irene Update - Landfall August 27 2011
Hurricane Irene is now a Strong category 1 hurricane. With winds still expected to be a threat early on, the bigger threat will be storm surge and rain amounts. This is provided she continues to weaken as she moves north northeast on her projected track.
Here are a couple screen grabs I took moments ago -
Hurricane Irene making landfall 524AMEDT AUGUST 27 2011
Hurricane Irene Rain total 1040pm-519amedt August 27 2011 Roughly 6½ hours
Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center at 5 AM EDT, with forecast track and model plots following the text.
Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 27 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 536amedt Aug 27 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 27 2011
Here are a couple screen grabs I took moments ago -
Hurricane Irene making landfall 524AMEDT AUGUST 27 2011
Hurricane Irene Rain total 1040pm-519amedt August 27 2011 Roughly 6½ hours
Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center at 5 AM EDT, with forecast track and model plots following the text.
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 76.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY ONE AND CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 61 MPH...98 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 78 MPH...126 KM/H. A STORM SPOTTER IN STACY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 93 MPH...150 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. A NOAA BUOY IN ONSLOW BAY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 963.1 MB...28.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 27 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 536amedt Aug 27 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 27 2011
Friday, August 26, 2011
Hurricane Irene Update - August 26 2011
Irene has weakened slightly at this time and is now a category 2 hurricane. Irene will continue to fluctuate in strength and size as she continues here track to the north and then northeast. Irene is a dangerous storm and these slight variations in size and strength should not be considered or overlooked as a sign of overall weakening.
People in the path of Irene should head the warnings issued and take appropriate measures to secure their well being. Property can often be replaced and there is nothing you con do to stop the power of a hurricane should it decide to take your property. Save your life, move to a safe place well inland from the storm.
Remember the reach of hurricane and tropical strength winds will be felt some distance from the actual center of the hurricane, as well as heavy flooding rains and tidal surge. At this time hurricane force winds extend outwards of 90 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend outwards up to 290 miles. Tropical storm winds are as deadly with speeds reaching 73 MPH where hurricane type devastation will occur. A wind of 50 MPH will cause trees to be uprooted and structural damage to property to occur.
Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center with projected track and model plots following the text -
Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 26 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 521amedt Aug 26 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 26 2011
People in the path of Irene should head the warnings issued and take appropriate measures to secure their well being. Property can often be replaced and there is nothing you con do to stop the power of a hurricane should it decide to take your property. Save your life, move to a safe place well inland from the storm.
Remember the reach of hurricane and tropical strength winds will be felt some distance from the actual center of the hurricane, as well as heavy flooding rains and tidal surge. At this time hurricane force winds extend outwards of 90 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend outwards up to 290 miles. Tropical storm winds are as deadly with speeds reaching 73 MPH where hurricane type devastation will occur. A wind of 50 MPH will cause trees to be uprooted and structural damage to property to occur.
Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center with projected track and model plots following the text -
BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 ...IRENE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 77.2W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN CATEGORY TWO AND THREE AS IT REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010 LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H... AND A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 26 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 521amedt Aug 26 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 26 2011
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Hurricane Irene Update - 6AM EDT August 25 2011
Hurricane Irene is acting up. The track once more has shifted to the West and now puts the center crossing the NC coast west of Cape Hatteras over the Pamlico Sound. Also, Once Irene makes landfall on the North Carolina coast and moves North, a second landfall on Long Island not too far east of New York City with a third landfall very near Bridgeport, CT. All of this is based off of current models and data. Be safe and if you know of someone in any of these areas, how about making sure they are aware of what's taking place.
Here is the latest from the NHC -
Most recent computer models of Hurricane Irene track -
Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 25 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 25 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 551amedt Aug 25 2011
Here is the latest from the NHC -
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 76.2W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF NASSAU ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
Most recent computer models of Hurricane Irene track -
Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 25 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 25 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 551amedt Aug 25 2011
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Hurricane Irene Wobbles to left - Satellite Image August 24 2011
I have a bad feeling about this. Trough stalled in GA at this time, next front on the way may be to late to steer Irene away especially if she gets larger and stronger. Irene may come closer to Florida as was originally thought. Hope I'm wrong. Definite wobble to the left....
This image is from 12:30 AM EDT
Here is the latest as of 2 AM EDT -
This image is from 12:30 AM EDT
Here is the latest as of 2 AM EDT -
And we see, they too see the wobble in the same updateHURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 ...IRENE STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IRENE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Hurricane Irene - Model plots August 23 2011 - East Coast Runner ??
Models have shifted a little more to the east once again. It's still looking likely that North Carolina will be impacted, how much is anyone's guess. I would suggest all on the East Coast keep an eye on Hurricane Irene as she could take a left turn at any time.
Looking at the official projected path of Irene from the National Hurricane Center anywhere from Wilmington North Carolina, Morehead City up through the Outer Banks may receive a direct hit. Hurricane force winds will be felt farther inland.
Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 23 2011
Depending on the exact track Hurricane Irene takes, areas farther to the north are not out of the woods. If Irene is an east coast runner where the eye would remain over water, many areas would be impacted. Impacts would be lessened only due to the west side of the hurricane impacting these areas. Still, the damage form high winds and flooding will be great. Should Hurricane Irene move up the coast and impact highly populated areas and major cities like Washington D.C., Philadelphia or New York City, it will be devastating to the infrastructure of these cities.
The other side of the coin, Irene may not make landfall on the U.S. East Coast at all. With the High still firmly in place west of Texas and a deepening Trough from the North East in the East and shortwaves moving down, Irene may have a problem overcoming this. Of course no one can tell for sure if this will happen so everybody will need to stay vigilant.
Here is Irene's position as of 2 PM EDT
Irene Forecast track as of 351pmedt Aug 23 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 23 2011_01
Side note: Did you hear about the 5.8 Earthquake on the East Coast today in Virginia ?
Looking at the official projected path of Irene from the National Hurricane Center anywhere from Wilmington North Carolina, Morehead City up through the Outer Banks may receive a direct hit. Hurricane force winds will be felt farther inland.
Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 23 2011
Depending on the exact track Hurricane Irene takes, areas farther to the north are not out of the woods. If Irene is an east coast runner where the eye would remain over water, many areas would be impacted. Impacts would be lessened only due to the west side of the hurricane impacting these areas. Still, the damage form high winds and flooding will be great. Should Hurricane Irene move up the coast and impact highly populated areas and major cities like Washington D.C., Philadelphia or New York City, it will be devastating to the infrastructure of these cities.
The other side of the coin, Irene may not make landfall on the U.S. East Coast at all. With the High still firmly in place west of Texas and a deepening Trough from the North East in the East and shortwaves moving down, Irene may have a problem overcoming this. Of course no one can tell for sure if this will happen so everybody will need to stay vigilant.
Here is Irene's position as of 2 PM EDT
Here's a look at computer model forecast plots-NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 71.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
Irene Forecast track as of 351pmedt Aug 23 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 23 2011_01
Side note: Did you hear about the 5.8 Earthquake on the East Coast today in Virginia ?
Monday, August 22, 2011
Hurricane Irene - Model plots August 22 2011 - Charleston South Carolina Targeted
Surprise ... computer models tracks for Irene have shifted east. It was first thought Hurricane Irene would track up the west coast of Florida or up the spine [central]. Now focus is placed on the east coast of Florida and the east coast as a whole. The definite track is still open but the frame is narrowing day by day.
At this time the National Hurricane Center is predicting a Major Hurricane Irene to impact around Charleston South Carolina on Saturday August 27th. Here is the current forecast track and conditions as of 2 PM EDT today -
Here are some computer model plots -
Irene Forecast track as of 8amedt Aug 22 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 236pmedt Aug 22 2011
At this time the National Hurricane Center is predicting a Major Hurricane Irene to impact around Charleston South Carolina on Saturday August 27th. Here is the current forecast track and conditions as of 2 PM EDT today -
As a reminder this track is not set in stone and will change one way or the other. The NHC even reminds us of this in the Hurricane Irene discussion by stating000 WTNT34 KNHC 221748 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 ...IRENE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 68.1W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHESIrene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 22 2011
Irene Satellite as of 215pmedt Aug 22 2011
DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.With that in mind, Hurricane Irene could as well make landfall in Savannah Georgia which is overdue for a hurricane. Funny in that another Hurricane named Irene passed to the east of Savannah Georgia from the SSW on October 17 1999 with 75mph winds. This far out it is anyone's guess where Hurricane Irene will go, but the window is closing. Should Hurricane Irene make landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast, this will be the first hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast since Ike in 2008.
Here are some computer model plots -
Irene Forecast track as of 8amedt Aug 22 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 236pmedt Aug 22 2011
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Tropical Storm Irene - Model plots August 20 2011
Tropical Storm Irene is on the board. At this time computer models are still wide open as to where she will go. I will be monitoring Irene a bit more closely in the coming days. No since in getting all excited when I dont even know if she will survive her interaction with the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
Best guess at this time is she will not traverse the Gulf of Mexico. However there is the possibility she may hug the west coast of Florida as she moves north. This all depends on whether the large high over Texas holds or shifts a little west. If it holds, Irene should go up the spine of Florida according to current models. Should the high over Texas shift a little to the west, Irene could enter the Gulf of Mexico hugging the coast of Florida. This would be bad news for Florida should this happen. As stated at this time anything can happen, no track is set in stone.
Here are the current specifics of Irene from the National Hurricane Center
Here are some of the computer model plots for TS Irene at this time - * Remember we are a week out and these forecast tracks 'will change' * -
Irene Forecast track as of 7pmedt Aug 20 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 906pmedt Aug 20 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 20 2011
Best guess at this time is she will not traverse the Gulf of Mexico. However there is the possibility she may hug the west coast of Florida as she moves north. This all depends on whether the large high over Texas holds or shifts a little west. If it holds, Irene should go up the spine of Florida according to current models. Should the high over Texas shift a little to the west, Irene could enter the Gulf of Mexico hugging the coast of Florida. This would be bad news for Florida should this happen. As stated at this time anything can happen, no track is set in stone.
Here are the current specifics of Irene from the National Hurricane Center
TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 58.5W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF DOMINICA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Here are some of the computer model plots for TS Irene at this time - * Remember we are a week out and these forecast tracks 'will change' * -
Irene Forecast track as of 7pmedt Aug 20 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 906pmedt Aug 20 2011
Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 20 2011
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Georgia Drought Update August 18 2011
In the last Drought update on August 11 I mentioned that I had some decent rains as well as other spots around the local area. In that post I also mentioned that the rains were not reflected in that weekly report. Well, It really had no effect on drought conditions in the local area. Why ? Because we have had little in the way of rain since that time, on August 8th. The last time it rained here at the homestead was August 11th. On that day I recorded 0.29 inches.
While we have enjoyed some cooler temperatures and lower humidity in the last week, we have seen no rain save a few short lived pop-up isolated showers. Some of those brought some good rain to the northern and eastern part of Harris county.
So not much has changed from last week to this in the local area. Other areas of the state have seen marked improvement. Here is the graph showing last week versus this week.
Here are Drought percentages covering the whole state.
And here is the rest of the Southeast.
Here is the Palmer Drought Severity Index showing how much rain is needed to bring conditions back to somewhat normal.
I wont bore you with the other graphs as they are not much different than last week either.
While we have enjoyed some cooler temperatures and lower humidity in the last week, we have seen no rain save a few short lived pop-up isolated showers. Some of those brought some good rain to the northern and eastern part of Harris county.
So not much has changed from last week to this in the local area. Other areas of the state have seen marked improvement. Here is the graph showing last week versus this week.
Here are Drought percentages covering the whole state.
And here is the rest of the Southeast.
Here is the Palmer Drought Severity Index showing how much rain is needed to bring conditions back to somewhat normal.
I wont bore you with the other graphs as they are not much different than last week either.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
TS Franklin short lived, Tropical Storm Gert on the way
Here is the plot of Tropical Storm Franklin's short life..
And here is the last report
And here is the last report
Here is the latest on Tropical Depression SEVEN possibly becoming Tropical Storm Gert later today or tonight.1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 ...FRANKLIN LOSES TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.5N 51.8W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2011 ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA BY TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 63.2W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH BERMUDA TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES...BASED ON RECENT NOAA BUOY REPORTS. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Georgia Drought Update August 11 2011
This past week saw some welcome rain in the local area, which is not yet reflected in this weeks drought update. While this may be the case, drought conditions have backed off and next week I expect this to be greatly reflected.
During this past week at my location in Cataula, I have seen 3.12 inches of liquid sunshine. 2.91 inches fell on one day, August 8th and the other 0.21 inches on August 6th. Columbus airport saw 3.84 inches during this time. The average rainfall for our local area in August is 3.78 inches. So we are well on our way to receiving above average rainfall for the month as we are barley a week in to August, Columbus already beating the average.
As you can see in this image below for August 2 thru August 9 2011, little has changed as far as drought conditions in the local area, or in Georgia as a whole. The exception being in east central Georgia where a small area is now classified as being in severe drought this week from extreme drought the previous.
Here is the current graphic showing our current drought conditions in Georgia.
Here is a map showing the amount of rain the state has seen in the last 14 days. The local area which is within the RED circle has seen anywhere from 2 to 5 inches.
As mentioned above we have had some good amounts of rain in the past week that is not yet being reflected in current data. As a matter of fact, according to this current map conditions have deteriorated compared to last weeks map in the general area as far as how much rain is needed to bring conditions back to normal. However the local area remains unchanged.
You can keep up with local rain totals here Cataula Rain Gauge.
During this past week at my location in Cataula, I have seen 3.12 inches of liquid sunshine. 2.91 inches fell on one day, August 8th and the other 0.21 inches on August 6th. Columbus airport saw 3.84 inches during this time. The average rainfall for our local area in August is 3.78 inches. So we are well on our way to receiving above average rainfall for the month as we are barley a week in to August, Columbus already beating the average.
As you can see in this image below for August 2 thru August 9 2011, little has changed as far as drought conditions in the local area, or in Georgia as a whole. The exception being in east central Georgia where a small area is now classified as being in severe drought this week from extreme drought the previous.
Here is the current graphic showing our current drought conditions in Georgia.
Here is a map showing the amount of rain the state has seen in the last 14 days. The local area which is within the RED circle has seen anywhere from 2 to 5 inches.
As mentioned above we have had some good amounts of rain in the past week that is not yet being reflected in current data. As a matter of fact, according to this current map conditions have deteriorated compared to last weeks map in the general area as far as how much rain is needed to bring conditions back to normal. However the local area remains unchanged.
You can keep up with local rain totals here Cataula Rain Gauge.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Emily is Back forecast track / Another Tropical Wave to watch August 7 2011
Yes the fickle girl is back though not as strong as she once was. Emily is now a Tropical Depression once again after making her way into some warmer waters of the east coast of Florida.
Emily is forecast once again to strengthen a little and head out in to the open waters of the Atlantic as she was to do once before. Will she do this, I have know Idea as she has not been reasonable in her journey thus far.
Later this week we should see another wave become better organized after exiting the coast of Africa. If this loop is any indication, she may well develop in the next couple of days and be a long tracked storm. Already there is a circulation.
Emily is forecast once again to strengthen a little and head out in to the open waters of the Atlantic as she was to do once before. Will she do this, I have know Idea as she has not been reasonable in her journey thus far.
Later this week we should see another wave become better organized after exiting the coast of Africa. If this loop is any indication, she may well develop in the next couple of days and be a long tracked storm. Already there is a circulation.
Saturday, August 6, 2011
Georgia Drought Update August 6 2011
The past couple of weeks have been dry in the area once again. The exception has been the northern and southern parts of the state. Central Georgia has seen a little activity in the form of pop-up scattered to isolated showers, offering little relief from drought conditions.
Although little rain has fallen in the local area and other areas throughout central Georgia, the drought monitor has removed our local area from 'Exceptional drought' and back in to 'Extreme drought'.
Here is the current graphic showing our current drought conditions.
Here is a graphic showing the change from July 26 on the left to August 2 on the right.
Here at the homestead I ended the month of July with 3.79 inches of rain, and so far in August have seen none. Here is a map showing the amount of rain the state has seen in the last 14 days. The local are which is within the RED circle has seen less as mentioned than north or south of our location. According to the map legend we have seen anywhere from to 2 inches in part of Muscogge county, and a half to inch and a half in Harris county. Sounds about right according to my records of daily rainfall amounts.
We are still way below normal and I expect these dry days will once again catch up with us in the coming weeks. According to this map, we still need anywhere from 9 to 12 inches in the local area.
On a side note - We are still waiting on a tropical system to bring us relief.
Although little rain has fallen in the local area and other areas throughout central Georgia, the drought monitor has removed our local area from 'Exceptional drought' and back in to 'Extreme drought'.
Here is the current graphic showing our current drought conditions.
Here is a graphic showing the change from July 26 on the left to August 2 on the right.
Here at the homestead I ended the month of July with 3.79 inches of rain, and so far in August have seen none. Here is a map showing the amount of rain the state has seen in the last 14 days. The local are which is within the RED circle has seen less as mentioned than north or south of our location. According to the map legend we have seen anywhere from to 2 inches in part of Muscogge county, and a half to inch and a half in Harris county. Sounds about right according to my records of daily rainfall amounts.
We are still way below normal and I expect these dry days will once again catch up with us in the coming weeks. According to this map, we still need anywhere from 9 to 12 inches in the local area.
On a side note - We are still waiting on a tropical system to bring us relief.
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