Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 / Invest #93L - August 10 2012

Tropical Depression Seven [TD7] looking a little better organized at this time on satellite imagery. Currently TD7 is located about 1245 Miles east of the Windward Islands at 13.7 North 49.5 West. TD7 has winds of 35 MPH is moving West at a fast clip of 23 MPH and has a central pressure of 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. It is uncertain if TD7 will be able to maintain it's current structure at this time as it continues to move toward the Caribbean. There is a large swath of dry air to the north and ahead of this system with hints of some being pulled in. Remnants of what's left of Florence due north may also be contributing some wind shear in the area at this time. It seems the only thing TD7 has going for it at this time are warm sea surface temperatures. I'll keep an eye on TD7 for further development in the coming days.

######

Invest 93L is struggling at this time as it moves over cooler water and has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm at this time. While conditions at this time seem unfavorable for further development, I'll continue to keep an eye on this tropical wave.


Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 and Invest #93L

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems

Latest Computer Models Low Pressure Florida Coast - October 10 2011

For more information, see my earlier post here.

Low Pressure Develops off Florida East Coast

Mentioned Last Week, the possibility of a tropical system forming in this area. While the currently surface low at this time has not developed into anything more, there is still the possibility of further development. The NHC is giving this system a 30% chance of further development; here's what the National Hurricane Center has to say at this time 8 PM EDT:

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 25N80W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 69W-78W...AND AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 21N-33N BETWEEN 69W-82W. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE ENHANCED BY STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS E OF A LINE FROM 26N83W TO 15N79W. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N84W BY LATE MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG WINDS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY..

Along with the low mentioned above is an upper level low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico as well. It is expected these two lows will merge to form one low pressure system having tropical or subtropical characteristic's, and continue to move north.

Here's the anticipated track's of this system -

You can check out the radar images here, and keep up with tropical weather here should this system, or any pose a threat in the future.

We can use the rain here in Georgia as we are still enduring a severe drought.

Invest AL93 Gulf of Mexico - Where is it going ? August 31 2011

The early computer models dont have a clue at this time. Just a little eye candy...