Tropical Storm Jose forms, Irene weakens, AL92 Tropical Wave off Africa

Computer Models / Graphics

Tropical Systems August 28 2011

Irene : Irene continues to weaken, now a Tropical Storm so we wont talk about her other than to mention that.

AL92 is the one we need to watch in the coming days, week ....

AL92 : via National Hurricane Center

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AL92 836amedt August 28 2011

Tropical Storm Jose : At this time Tropical Storm Jose posses no threat to the east coast of the U.S. Jose is expected to track north in the coming days. via NHC -

AT 800 AM AST 1200 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY AND JOSE SHOULD WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

Jose 836amedt august 28 2011

Tropical Storm Irene - Model plots August 20 2011

Tropical Storm Irene is on the board. At this time computer models are still wide open as to where she will go. I will be monitoring Irene a bit more closely in the coming days. No since in getting all excited when I dont even know if she will survive her interaction with the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Best guess at this time is she will not traverse the Gulf of Mexico. However there is the possibility she may hug the west coast of Florida as she moves north. This all depends on whether the large high over Texas holds or shifts a little west. If it holds, Irene should go up the spine of Florida according to current models. Should the high over Texas shift a little to the west, Irene could enter the Gulf of Mexico hugging the coast of Florida. This would be bad news for Florida should this happen. As stated at this time anything can happen, no track is set in stone.

Here are the current specifics of Irene from the National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 58.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Here are some of the computer model plots for TS Irene at this time - * Remember we are a week out and these forecast tracks 'will change' * -

Irene Forecast track as of 7pmedt Aug 20 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 906pmedt Aug 20 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 20 2011