Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show....

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I'll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe 'damaging winds' are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, 'not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes'.

I'll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I'll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter before and when the storms strike. I'm there all the time and don't always have time to update the blog here ;) Follow @Cataulagawx

Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast - December 25 2012

Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a 'damaging wind event'. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.

If you've followed me long enough you know I won't / don't sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.

Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here's the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office's around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.

Here's the outlook form the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.

I'll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.


Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.

Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.

The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.

I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50's to mid 60's and approaching the 70's along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.

Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx


If you're local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Posted 1:20 PM EST 12/23/2012

Another round of Southeast Severe Weather for Wednesday / Thursday 12/19-12/20/2012

Moisture already beginning to be pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this next system. This system is more potent that the one we saw earlier this week move across the south. It also looks to be faster.

Louisiana and Mississippi

Impacts will be felt in Louisiana beginning Wednesday Night moving quickly into Mississippi by Thursday morning. The greatest threat will be damaging winds of 60 mph plus that will accompany a squall line that is expected to develop. Due to strong wind shear and forcing to the surface, it is likely a few tornadoes will spin up quickly. These types of quick spin ups are hard to detect on radar and usually occur without Tornado Warnings being issued.

Outlook for Wednesday December 19 2012

Alabama and Georgia

It all comes down to timing as to what will happen in Alabama and Georgia. If it comes in later than anticipated I expect a more robust system with more widespread thunderstorms some that will turn severe. If it comes in earlier than anticipated I expect some thundershowers and a few thunderstorms. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER. Just as the storm system Yesterday, It didn't get bad until it was to our south and east.

At this time I expect the main line of stronger storms should they develop to enter the east Alabama area between 12 and 2 PM CST [Thursday] and West Georgia shortly after. This timing is subject to change in the next day or so. We'll just have to keep an eye on this and see what happens. Right now our area is highlighted just as it was yesterday for a 'slight risk' of stronger thunderstorms.

Outlook for Thursday December 20 2012

Follow @Cataulagawx

Strong to Severe Storms Georgia / Alabama - 5/31-6/1 2012

Friday looks to be an active day for weather. We might even see some strong storms Thursday night in Alabama before the storms arrive in Georgia sometime Friday.

At this time the greatest threats with the strong to severe storms will be Hail from pea size up to quarter size, Strong Damaging winds to 50+ MPH, Heavy rains and frequent lightning. I will also add that there is a small chance of a Tornado due to variables with the approaching system and individual storm cells should they develop.

While the threat of a tornado is small, it can not be entirely ruled out. The reason for this is due to what may happen with the stronger storms [ See Link - Confirmed Tornado Lee County Alabama on May 13 2012 ]. While the best energy for Tornadoes will be to our north in Georgia and farther north, strong storms which will be coming through will be capable of spinning up quick small short lived tornadoes. I wont rule out a small tornado Thursday or Friday at some point and time in Alabama or Georgia.

At this time, it looks like Thunderstorms will increase Thursday Night, and there is the possibility some of them could be severe. Early Friday morning in the early AM hours there may still be some active storms around. Not as active as with day time heating, but still some could be strong.

On Friday as the day heats up, storms should get a little stronger by mid afternoon and continue into the night. The exact timing is not set in stone. Other factors will also be in play that may help storms begin earlier or later, be weaker or stronger, such as cloud cover and or atmosphere stabilization / destabilization from the earlier storms to our west.

Just a reminder ... Not everyone will see a severe storm. Not everyone will experience hail and high winds. Not everyone will see a Tornado. No one knows to pin point accuracy when and where any of this may happen during the event.

I'll have another update later.

Update 1 - Latest on Storms Saturday 2/18 and Sunday 2/19

Update #1 - 4:00 PM EST 2/18/2012

Quick Update to show the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center this afternoon. The changes are subtle but do impact the local area and much of the southeast. For previous graphics see 'original post' below.

The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.

Slight Risk : Now includes Most of West Central Georgia over towards Macon in Central Georgia and South Towards Albany.

Tornado Probability : The local area including Columbus GA. and Phenix City Al is at a 2% risk of seeing a Tornado with the 5% area now encroaching on the southern counties in the local area.

Wind Probability : The local area including Columbus GA. and Phenix City Al. south towards Albany is now well within a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with a 5% Risk covering much of Georgia back into Alabama. The 30% risk area has shifted slightly northeast.

Hail Probability : The local area including Columbus GA., much of Central GA towards Macon and Phenix City Al. and much of central Alabama is at a 5% risk of seeing large hail.

Per the SPC concerning this update:

ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL GA WHERE THE GFS MOVES A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...A TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL GA.

**********

Original Post at 9:38 AM EST 2/18/2012

The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.

I will add, looking at models today, it seems the threat for really severe storms has diminished somewhat. This does not mean that one or more will not occur so don't let your guard down.


Looking at soundings from the RUC this morning for 6 AM Saturday through 12 AM Sunday morning [ 18 hrs sounding ], looks like any stronger storms will hold off until this evening around 4 PM EST. This particular model is indicating at this time stronger storms late this evening. One such storm is possible around 10 PM EST. The Hodograph for this particular storm is showing Zero CAPE, Helicity 782 and Shear 59 m/s. As mentioned yesterday, this system is a low CAPE, moderate to high Shear event and this sounding shows that well.

The NAM sounding shows stronger storms holding off until around 6 PM EST, building through the evening where around 10 PM EST one of the possible stronger storms will push through, having Zero CAPE, Helicity 799 and Shear 52 m/s.

The GFS3 sounding shows stronger storms holding off until around 6 PM EST as well, then building through the evening where around 12 AM EST Sunday Morning one of the possible stronger storms will push through, having Zero CAPE, Helicity 775 and Shear 50 m/s.

All in all possible stronger storms should arrive in the area this evening around 5 PM EST. Continuing through the evening with stronger storms around 11 PM EST Saturday night continuing through the overnight into early morning hours of Sunday. Accompanying these thunderstorms will be lots of rain with the GFS showing storm totals of over 3 inches.


Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center this morning....

Slight Risk : Extends north into the southern local area, including Columbus.

Tornado Probability : The Southern local area including Columbus is at a 2% risk of a Tornado.

Wind Probability : The local area including Columbus south is at a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with a 5% Risk covering the rest of the local area.

Hail Probability : The local area including Columbus, south and west of the city is at a 5% risk.

Here is this mornings outlook from the NWS Peachtree City, GA

Day One...Today and Tonight... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of central Georgia. Synopsis... A strong storm system will move out of Texas and into the southeast United States through tonight. Primary Hazards... The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes...damaging winds...large hail and lightning. The area of concern is along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon to Louisville and between midnight tonight and 7 am Sunday morning. Discussion... A ridge of high pressure will strengthen over north and central Georgia today as rain spreads across the state today. The strength of the ridge will depend on how far north a warm front will move into central Georgia tonight. At this time the warm front is expected to reach a Columbus to Macon to Louisville line late tonight. Areas south of the warm front will destabilize with capes reaching 600. Significant shear coupled with the relatively high capes and dewpoints in the lower 60s will be sufficient for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop after midnight tonight.

And the excessive rainfall outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

As is the case when severe weather threatens the area, I will be posting updates on Facebook and Twitter as much as I can and to the best of my ability.

My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Previous posts :

Thursday, February 16, 2012 - Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Severe Weather Threat still on track Saturday / Sunday for Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Severe Weather Threat still on track Saturday / Sunday for Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

My thinking at this time ... I will try and keep it simple ...

The severe weather threat for this Saturday is much like the last couple that have pushed through the southeast and local area during the past month, a low CAPE elevated SHEAR event. What this means is, while there may not be as much available convective energy [cape] as we would see during summertime thunderstorms, winds at different heights, speed and direction [shear] will make it possible for tornadoes to spin up out of the stronger storms that may move through the area. As with all situations such as this, it is not definitive this will happen. It just means the possibility is there for damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and possibly a tornado.

Looking at data available at this time 10:56 AM 2/17/2012, it would appear things may get bumpy during the overnight hours Saturday night into the early AM hours of Sunday Morning. I know this is not what many want to hear. I wish I could control the weather and make it otherwise.

Here is what I see ..... While thunderstorms may be ongoing from late afternoon Saturday, things start to heat up around 6 PM EST. From that time, storms will continue to build as the combination of a warm front to the south pushes north, and a cold front from the west pushes east. It looks like some of the stronger storms will push through around 9 PM EST. and possibly again as the frontal passage pushes through the area around 3 AM EST. Again, this is going by data currently available. Timing will change as the system evolves.

As I have said before, no one knows to pin point accuracy where severe storms might occur, until they form. We can only watch the environment for development and track their paths.

The latest wording form the Storm Prediction Center includes the mention of a strengthening Low Level Jet stream which would help induce a Line Echo Wave Pattern and Bow Echos which are indicative of straight line winds and possible tornadoes. They also mention Embedded Supercells which as we know can produce tornadoes. Again, I am not saying a tornado will spin up, only that conditions 'may' become favorable.

Another aspect of this will be the potential for flooding in areas which are prone. 2 to 3 inches of rain are expected during this event. There is the possibility of higher amounts in isolated areas.

What we can hope for is good rain and more clouds ahead of the main line to help stabilize the atmosphere, thus reducing the severe weather threat.

See my earlier post for more information - Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

As is the case when severe weather threatens the area, I will be posting updates on Facebook and Twitter as much as I can and to the best of my ability.

My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Here is a graphic from the NWS out of Peachtree City Georgia. I posted one earlier this morning from them which was released at 3:38 AM on Facebook. At that time the northern extent of the line was through central Troup county to the west. Now the line for potential severe weather has been pushed farther north.

A strong storm system will move toward Georgia bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. Some of these storms could produce damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and possibly a tornado. The area of greatest threat is generally south of a Carrollton to Atlanta to Commerce line between 6 PM Saturday to 9 AM Sunday. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible across much of north and central Georgia by midday Sunday and could produce minor flooding.

Here is another graphic. This one from the NWS out of Birmingham Alabama highlighting the area likely to see Tornadoes out of this storm system should they occur.

Severe Tornado Parameter (12Z NAM) valid at midnight tomorrow night EST. Highest risk remains over South Alabama.

Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Slight Risk of Severe Weather this Weekend. Biggest Risks at this time include Damaging Winds and Possible Tornadoes. This is an evolving risk, details will become clear as the event nears. I will be monitoring this situation and will keep you updated.

Take this threat serious as we are beginning the transition period from winter to spring in the south. Already this year we have seen severe weather including Tornadoes in the south. Fourtanatly for us the last threat in January did not materialize in west central Georgia or east central Alabama.

As with any mention of severe weather, no one knows to pin point accuracy where it might occur, until it does. The latest information and statements released give us a general idea of where and what to expect. It is up to you, the reader, to take every measure possible to keep yourself safe.

What to expect: Strong to severe storms, Possible damaging winds, Heavy rain with possible flooding, Possible hail, and possible Tornadoes.

I have already heard mention in my circle of this setup being similar to the tornado outbreak of March 2007. The only difference from then and now is that the atmosphere is going to be more "water-loaded", which could override severe elements.

Here is the latest wording and graphics from the Storm Prediction Center.


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 90 KTS.


...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES... DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

Some areas may have to deal with localized flooding as well. Here's the outlook Today thru Tuesday of next week for Rainfall - The latest from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

Update 2 - Severe Weather Threat Thursday / Friday - Georgia / Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012

Storm Prediction Center RAISES SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE BOARD Georgia,Alabama Severe Threat

Update #2 - 8:45 AM EST 1/26/12

Slight Risk area now covers much of the Southeast.

Tornado Probability : The local area is now at a 5% risk of a Tornado from 2% earlier [Scroll down for previous graphic in Update #1]

Wind Probability : The local area remains at a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with the 30% Risk [not instated earlier] now at the Alabama Georgia State line.

Hail Probability : Hail coverage area extended, still to our west. Local area still excluded.

**********

Update #1 - 5:15 AM EST 1/26/12

Threat remains for Damaging Straigtline Winds and isolated Tornadoes in the local area, East Central Alabama, West Central Georgia.

The Storm Prediction Center continues with the Slight Risk for strong thunderstorms across the area. There is also an area in South Alabama encroaching on central Alabama for the greatest threat for Tornadoes with a 5% probability extending south and west covering the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Mississippi. A 2% probability of a Tornado covers the remainder of our area extending over most of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, the Florida Panhandle and Southwest South Carolina.

As mentioned, the biggest threat will be from Damaging Straightline Winds occurring with the Squall Line as it pushes east. All of the Columbus local area and Phenix City area is now included in a 15% probability of seeing these damaging winds. The 15% also covers most of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle. At this time the threat of Hail is 5% and is contained to our West covering Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle.

From the Storm Prediction Center:

LATEST THINKING IS RENEWED FRONTAL CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER MS/SERN LA BEFORE PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY SUPPORTS DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE APPRECIABLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO PERHAPS PORTIONS OF ERN GA/SC DUE TO A DECAYING SQUALL LINE.

From The National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia

An area of low pressure will move across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday with a trailing cold front approaching the Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this front...abundant moisture will allow for the development of Showers and Scattered Thunderstorms across the forecast area Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning. Isolated strong to severe storms will accompany this activity overnight with Damaging Winds and Isolated Tornadoes being the primary concerns. With 1 to 3 inch rainfall totals expected in already saturated areas...the flash flooding potential over North Georgia will also need to be monitored closely. Please reference the Flash Flood Watch for more information on potential flooding.

And from the National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

The severe threat will shift into east Alabama Thursday evening. The greatest threat area for severe will be south of I-20 and east of I-65. The severe threat should be over by midnight.

**********

Original Post - 5:53 PM EST 1/25/2012

I'm not going to downplay the storm system heading our direction. I will also try not to overstate the severity. I am not trying to scare anyone. I just want you to be aware of the possibility of severe weather.

The biggest threat will be damaging Straightline Winds from a Squall line that is expected to form. Within this line, there is the possibility of Isolated Tornadoes.

With that, here is the latest statement from the National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EST WED JAN 25 2012

MAJOR CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS A RESULT OF THE HIGHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELED INSTABILITIES PEAK ACROSS THE CWA 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...WITH ML CAPE GENERALLY IN THE 200-300 J/KG RANGE. DECENT SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THESE INSTABILITIES...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE AS THE MAIN LINE PUSHES INTO THE STATE...AND INCREASES TO 40-45KTS ACROSS THE CSG AND MCN AREAS BY 06-12Z FRIDAY. JUST BEHIND THESE MAXIMA...MODELED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 65-75 KTS. AS A RESULT...CAN EXPECT TO SEE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. SPC ALREADY HAS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. WITH THIS STRONG EVENT EVOLVING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT IS IMPORTANT TO PREPARE NOW. DO NOT LET THESE STORMS CATCH YOU OFF GUARD.

And the latest graphics from the National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

See Previous post Severe Weather Threat Thursday / Friday - Georgia / Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012 for more information. Contains lead up info.

Severe Weather Threat Thursday / Friday - Georgia / Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012

Another heads up to the potential Severe Weather heading our way. I mentioned this threat as early as Saturday 1/21/2012 on Facebook and Twitter; since, I have mentioned the threat daily.

As with any mention of severe weather, no one knows to pin point accuracy where it might occur, until it does. The latest information and statements released give us a general idea of where and what to expect. It is up to you, the reader, to take every measure possible to keep yourself safe.

What to expect: Strong to severe storms, Possible damaging winds, Heavy rain with possible flooding, Possible hail, and possible Tornadoes. The system heading our direction is already responsible for this in Texas.

The timing on this system appears to be mainly late tomorrow night through early Friday morning.

I will monitor and continue to keep you updated through My Facebook Page: Cataula GA Weather Alerts And My Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS: All warnings for the local area are posted automatically on this account within seconds of the time they are issued.

Here's the latest from the Storm Prediction Center. Our area is in a Slight Risk for severe weather. This area has shifted since the last release. It is now farther east and north. It may be extended even farther east and north with the next release.

Severe Probability Risk: Our area is now in a 15% risk. This has been updated, as we were in the 5% risk area yesterday. I am hopeful upon the next release the percentage does not increase.

Here is what they said in their most recent statement....

CENTRAL AND NERN GULF COAST REGION...

GIVEN THE CONTINUED SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TX UPPER LOW/ TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE WWD INTO MORE OF ERN LA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FACTOR. THIS CHANGE WILL ALSO SUPPORT ANY ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED EWD INTO WRN GA AND THE REST OF THE FL PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TX LOW...THESE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE ERN EXTENSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH NOW INCLUDES THE ATLANTA AND TALLAHASSEE METRO AREAS.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY CROSSING LA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/ PRECIPITATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK/MOIST-ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCING EWD AND ACCOMPANYING SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS PER 30-40 KT SSWLY LLJ VEERING TO 50-70 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS...THREATS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN EVIDENT. THESE THREATS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE EWD MOVING QLCS.


Here are the most recent statements released by various National Weather Service offices covering our area, to include Georgia, Alabama and Florida.

National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE SIGNIFICANT AND WORTHY OF ATTENTION. NAM MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG AT 18Z IN NW GEORGIA WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EVENT
EVOLVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH SPC KEEPS OUR AREA OUT OF THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES...STRONG WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS EVENT IN AND AROUND METRO ATLANTA AND POINTS SOUTH. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE TO REPEAT OUR PATTERN FOR QLCS ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS PROVEN TO BE POTENT AT PRODUCING TORNADOES IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

You may have noticed the mention of the SPC in the above statement. We are NOW in the SLIGHT RISK coverage area.


National Weather Service Birmingham, AL
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE THURSDAY WILL BE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN 1/3 COUNTIES.


National Weather Service Mobile/Pensacola
THERE HAS BEEN CONTINUED CONCERN ON THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY...THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LVL JETS COMING INTO PLAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...AND WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...EXITS EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE ARE INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH HELICITIES TOPPING OUT AROUND 300 M^2/2^2. HAVE WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.


National Weather Service Tallahassee, FL
There is a potential for severe weather Thursday evening through mid-morning Friday as the aforementioned low advances towards, and eventually passes just northwest of our local area.
Strong upper level winds and marginal instability will combine to produce a threat for damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado in any severe storms that may develop.


With all that, please take this threat seriously. Every Weather Service in Georgia, Alabama, and north Florida including the Storm Prediction Center has mentioned Strong to severe storms, Possible damaging winds and Possible Tornadoes.

For weather geeks ....

Severe Weather Threat Monday 1/23/2012

Threat for severe weather in the local area still remains. [ 3:08 AM 1/23/2012 ]

At this time, severe threat for the local area is somewhat lower thanks to CAD Cold Air Damming [WEDGE] from the Northeast. However, we are still on the warm side of the Wedge with temps in the low 60's and dew points also in the low 60's. Areas to our north and east, temps and dew points are much lower.

Storms out to our west have weakened over the past couple of hours. Still .. they are producing Tornadoes indicated by Radar, and severe thunderstorms in North and Central western Alabama.

Radar 307 AM EST Jan 23 2012....

While the situation is improving somewhat, it remains to be seen as the front closes in on the local area if it will continue. I will continue to monitor the situation and post any updates concerning severe weather on Facebook and Twitter....

*My Facebook Page Cataula GA Weather Alerts: LIKE IT to receive the Alerts. All warnings for the local area and then some are posted there automatically. You can subscribe via SMS if you like (text message to your phone) by clicking the link on the left side column at the bottom titled 'Get Updates via SMS.

*My Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS on Twitter: All warnings for the local area are posted automatically on this account within seconds of the time they are issued.

Previous Post - Georgia Severe Weather Threat - Sunday 1/22 Monday 1/23

Georgia Severe Weather Threat - Sunday 1/22 Monday 1/23

First and most important - This is NOTHING like April 27 for our area. That was a generational outbreak.

Severe Weather Threat - Sunday 1/22 Monday 1/23

Timing - For our area in West Central Georgia and East Central Alabama, [ROUND #1] it looks like the weather will begin to become problematic this afternoon from 3-4 PM onward . [ROUND #2] The worst of the weather looks like it will be coming through in the early hours on Monday anywhere from 3 Am through mid morning 10 Am or so. This may and could all change as the system and day progresses. Please stay weather aware.

I do not expect storms around the local area to be as numerous as those on Saturday. I think most of the really bad stuff will stay to our north. I mentioned this yesterday on Facebook. However, should we experience a severe storm, it will likely have the same ingredients as those of Saturday. That being Strong winds, Hail, Frequent Lightning, Heavy Rain and yes, the threat of a Tornado.

When dealing with potent systems like we experienced many times including Saturday, it is really hard to pinpoint exactly what will happen, when and where. The general rule is be prepared when the mention of severe weather is forecast in and around your area. With that being said, here is what the Storm Prediction Center is showing for our area in the coming hours.


First the General Categorical Outlook. This is telling us what kind of threat the storms are and will pose. As you can see in this image the local area is not far from the Slight risk area outlined in Yellow. Remember this will shift east as time goes by. This does not mean the storm will be as strong when they get to a particular location. On the other hand it also does not show us that the storms will loose any strength as well. It gives us a general idea of what to expect in an overall picture.

Next is the Tornado Outlook. This is where the biggest threat is of Tornadoes occurring in the General area from above. As you can see, the local area is again not that far from the Green shaded area, which represents a 2% chance of a Tornado occurring in that general area. With that in mind, there is a low risk of Tornadoes in our area. That does not mean one could not be spawned just as the storms on Saturday did. We were outside the 2% area Saturday as well.

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Next in line is the Wind Outlook. This represents were you might expect strong to damaging winds to occur in a general area. Here we see the local area is well within the 5% area and just outside the 15% area. From this we can tell from what we have looked at thus far, Wind will be a larger threat than tornadoes in our area, produced from within a stronger thunderstorm should one occur in the approaching system.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Finally we look at the potential for large Hail in the given general area form above. As we can see from this image, we are well outside the threat area. This does not mean the possibility doesn't exist of hail occurring from one of the stronger thunderstorms embedded within the approaching system, just as mentioned above with wind.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

With all that said .. the biggest threat we face is possible damaging winds. Cant rule out hail or even an isolated Tornado though.


When the weather turns severe you need some way of getting Warnings when issued. A NOAA Weather Radio properly programmed is likely the best choice. Here are some alternatives.

*My Facebook Page Cataula GA Weather Alerts: LIKE IT to receive the Alerts. All warnings for the local area and then some are posted there automatically. You can subscribe via SMS if you like (text message to your phone) by clicking the link on the left side column at the bottom titled 'Get Updates via SMS.

*My Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS on Twitter: All warnings for the local area are posted automatically on this account within seconds of the time they are issued.

*iMap WeatherRadio App: This is available now for iPhone only, but an Android version will be released soon. The GPS chip in your phone knows where you are, and if you are in a polygon warning, you get it. If you are not in the polygon, you won’t be alarmed. Also, you can program fixed locations.

Tornado in Troup County Georgia November 22 2011 ????

I'm not able to confirm a tornado in Troup or Heard county around 6:00 PM EST November 22 2011. I have looked at various reporting services and none of them have any reports of a tornado touching down.

There was a tornado warning issued:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
607 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HEARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHERN TROUP COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 645 PM EST

* AT 604 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES WEST OF
LAGRANGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HOGANSVILLE AND CORINTH.

I tweeted it, as well as posted it on my facebook page 'Cataula GA Weather Alerts':

Cataula GA Weather Alerts
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN TROUP AND HEARD COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EST #gawx
Like · · Share · 19 hours ago via TweetDeck ·

Cataula GA Weather Alerts
TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HEARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTHERN TROUP COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA UNTIL 645 PM EST #gawx
Like · · Share · 19 hours ago via TweetDeck

I also have a radar screenshot of the warned area from a friend:

And this report from a local media outlet wltz.com - TV38:

NWS: Tornado touches down in Troup County

Troup Co. GA- According to the National Weather Service a tornado has touched down in Troup County, Georgia near the Wares Cross Road.

The National Weather Service says that their Doppler radar indicates that the storm touched down at 6:27 PM and is moving northeast at 30 miles per hour.

Other locations included in the National Weather Service's tornado warning for northern Troup County include, Hogansville, Hillcrest, Harrisonville and Corinth.

The tornado warning expired at 6:45 PM.

I'm guessing this was nothing more than a radar indicated tornado, as I have not found any reports of the tornado touching down or damage reports other than the one you see above form WLTZ TV 38. I'm also guessing that the person who wrote the above and the person who posted it dont know what the heck they're talking about. I believe they misinterpreted the information.

If you have any information or are able to verify a tornado touching down in Troup county, please share in the comment section below or contact me [see top left sidebar].

See related: Isolated Strong to Severe Storms still on tack for Tuesday 11/22

Isolated Strong to Severe Storms still on tack for Tuesday 11/22..

..through the overnight hours into Wednesday 11/23.

Anytime Tuesday after 12 PM through Wednesday 7 AM the potential for isolated severe weather will be present. From Bufkit soundings, here are the time frames I see the best chances of seeing severe weather in the Local Area Tuesday into Wednesday:

Per NAM : time frame for best chance of seeing severe will be 11 AM - 12 PM EST Tuesday to about 8-9 PM EST, and from 12-1 AM EST Wednesday to around 7 AM EST.

Per GFS : time frame for best chance of seeing severe will be 3-4 PM EST Tuesday to about 6-7 PM EST, and 1-2 AM EST Wednesday to around 4-5 AM EST.


Many National Weather Service offices continue to mention the 'threat of isolated severe to strong storms' in Georgia, Alabama, the panhandle of Florida, South & North Carolina.

The biggest threat still remains 'strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, and possibly a Tornado' or two.

Here's the latest from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday 7 AM EST through Wednesday 7 AM EST... I left out the technical jargon..

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH QLCS [Quasi Linear Convective Systems] THE DOMINANT MODE AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 45+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS IT CONTINUES EWD...AND STORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME STRENGTHENING AS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE IS EXPECTED IN THE CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NRN GA AND SC OVERNIGHT.

Here's the latest Convective Outlook Graphic for Tuesday 11/22/2011. The local area in now included in the 15% probability for isolated severe storms. Yesterday, we were in a 5% area.

____________________

via the NWS Peachtree City, GA Covering the local area and areas to our north and east..

MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FORECAST AREA DEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR... EXPECT MID-UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO PRODUCE 500-1000 CAPE INTO TUESDAY EVENING WHEN STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO NW AND WEST CENTRAL GA. THESE CAPE VALUES COUPLED WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEER AND HELICITY FROM STRONG VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST ALABAMA STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH AS THEY PUSH INTO GA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES AHEAD AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING A MAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS RECENTLY INCREASED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO INCLUDE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WASHINGTON LINE. BEST GUESS ON SEVERE THREAT TIMING IS NW AND WEST CENTRAL GA BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM...THEN AREAS FURTHER EAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT STORMS TO BE WEAKENING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BY 3-4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL GA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... WHICH IS NOT PROGGED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH A MAV AND MET BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EXPECTED NEAR OR NEW RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

____________________

via the NWS Birmingham, AL covering areas to our West including Lee & Russell Counties, Auburn / Opelika and Phenix City Alabama....

THE NAM SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACCELERATING EASTWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE LINE SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM. WITH AN ERODING UPPER CAP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EAST ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM MODEL IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA. SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT THIS AREA WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY FOR LOCALIZED STRONG STORMS.

VEERING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS BY SUNSET TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END THE THREAT OF PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS WITH THE FOCUS FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

____________________

NWS Tallahassee, FL covering areas to our south including southwest Georgia, southwest Alabama and parts of the Florida panhandle and Big Bend area...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHILE IT IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. BY THE TIME THE STORMS REACH OUR FORECAST AREA...SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THEY WILL BE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

This was a follow up post on Potential Severe Weather Thanksgiving Week 2011 posted Sunday, November 20, 2011.