Early look at 'Possible severe weather' for November 11-13 2012

This is a look ahead to November 11^th through the 13^th. As you know things in the weather world change on a dime. Should this verify we may see some strong to severe storms in the South & Southeast, Tennessee valley, Middle & Lower Mississippi valley back into the Central & Southern plains. We are entering our Second Severe Weather Season in these areas. I'll keep a watch on modeling in the coming days as we near these dates.

Surface to 500mb Bulk Shear in knots. Here it looks pretty impressive and could support severe weather possible Tornadoes. [denotes the change of wind direction with height a measure of vorticity]

Cross over winds in knots from Surface[red] to 500mb[blue] [winds form different direction that may cause spin]

Temperature at the surface during this possible event shows the contrast ahead of the system vs behind it. Notice the 70's and 80's ahead and the cooler 30' and 40' behind. This is the same setup we deal with in spring as warm and colder air clash.

While dew points are modest approaching the 60's it doesn't take high dew points this time of year to provide more energy for storms. [Dew point is the measure of moisture / fuel in the air so to speak]

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Severe Storms Four Corners Region / Central & Southern Plains Today and Tomorrow Southern & Central Plains / Mid & Upper Mississippi Valley

Threats: Severe thunderstorms capable of Damaging winds along with hail some large enough to cause damage. A tornado or two can't be ruled out as storms intensify during daylight hours.

Today Friday 10/12 : A strong low pressure system currently centered in the area of Southern Nevada and Northwestern Arizona will continue to move in a east-northeast direction today. Severe storms 'already firing' in eastern Arizona this morning will continue while heading easterly and likely intensify as the day heats up. Also seeing some higher tops in eastern New Mexico Western Texas this morning on the outer periphery of the Low pressure circulation, these will likely continue to build through the day and possibly bring severe storms. A Tornado watch may be issued later today. Some weakening is likely during the overnight hours due to loss of daytime heating, but severe storms are still possible.

Tomorrow Saturday 10/13 : Storms look at this time to be more concentrated than those of Friday. As the Low pressure continues heading east-northeast, areas of the southern and central plains will likely see thunderstorms early Saturday morning which will continue to build through the day while heading for the Upper and lower Mississippi Valley. Later in the day they will likely bring with them severe storms capable of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. As always not everyone will experience severe weather so stay aware of changing conditions. Monitor you local weather offices, television stations and weather radios. We'll have more on this later.

Below are graphics showing areas of concern and possible weather for today 'Friday 10/12/12' and tomorrow 'Saturday 10/13/12'.

Friday October 12 2012

Saturday October 13 2012