Well, that was interesting..storms on May 13 2012..Only Human

A dry slot worked into the area allowing sunshine to peek out, heat up, and destabilize the area.

On Sunday May 13 2012 I was lazing around, just taking it easy. I wasn't expecting any strong storms after looking at computer models / data in the early morning hours. Scratch that, I was expecting some, possibly severe, but that was for the overnight hours of Saturday May 12 into the early morning hours of Sunday May 13. Not Sunday afternoon and evening !!!

In case you couldn't read the above, this is the pertinent part, myself talking about storm potential on Saturday May 12 at 2:44 PM EDT:

As far as anything bad .... Later tonight there appears to be a chance of some stronger storms, judging by wind profiles. The problem with this is, it is hard to pin down an exact area as this will be Isolated events, not widespread. Hopefully the band of rain that came through this morning and the one headed our way in the next hour will keep the local area more stable later, due to limited heating from cloud cover.

After the storms failed to materialize Saturday night, early Sunday morning, I figured the atmosphere was stable and would remain so as clouds and rain were in the forecast. I feel kinda bad that I didn't look at models / data Sunday morning sometime and pick up on this. I kinda feel a little better knowing even the Pro's missed it as well, locally and government. Well sorta with the gov as the Storm Prediction Center did mention a Tornado or two in their update at 0748 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012, but not earlier.

As a matter of fact, this is what the SPC said Earlier at 1211 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012, which was the last I looked at from them.:

FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN TN...

UPPER VORT MAX IS SHEARING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS AL INTO NRN GA BY 18Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE A LONGER WAVE TROUGH WILL LAG ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF UPPER VORT SHOULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE MORE THAN A 5% RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

This is from one of the local TV stations weather Facebook page, posted Sunday May 13 2012 at 12:59 PM EDT ..

As we talked about yesterday we would see "Periods" of rain on our Sunday. It may be dry where you live right now, but another round is moving through right now.

This is from the other local TV station Facebook page, posted May 13 2012 at 7:19 AM EDT ..

interactive weather clearly shows rainfall tapering off west to east. We still will see afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Nothing severe, this is the good news. The primary threat will be the advancing front, with the surface low later this afternoon and tonight. A few of these storms will likely produce strong winds.

For the most part the local area did NOT see any severe weather, but it was all around us. As close as Lee, Chambers and Tallapoosa counties in Alabama just across the Chattahoochee river, Tornado Warning. It is considered the local area. We also had a Flash Flood Warning issued that lasted about 4 hours for Muscogee and Harris counties, due to heavy heavy rain. I live in Harris county.

Here's a graphic showing the warnings on Sunday:

OK, enough of this .. we all make mistakes .. on with the show. Here's some pics of storms in the area.

This is from Brandon Thomas down in Barbour county Alabama. He decided to go chase the storms moving through his area. Here is his description; "Brief funnel as the wall cloud began emerging over the lake. — in Eufaula, Alabama."

And another form Brandon, description - "Wall cloud over the lake with RFD cut to the left. — in Eufaula, Alabama."

One more from Brandon - "Slowly rotating wall cloud with inflow tail forming.
— in Eufaula, Alabama."

This one is from Cody Nickel, a student at Mississippi State University majoring in Meteorology, while home on break. He was looking west toward Alabama from an upper floor window at the medical center in downtown Columbus Georgia.

Here's one showing street flooding in Columbus from Belinda Brewer. We had copious amounts of rain. Here at the homestead I recorded 2.83 inches on Sunday.

Dual Pol Radar Tornado Detection Capabilities

Radar upgrades to Dual-Polarization began in September 2011 and continue today. When this technology first appeared on the scene, I was eager to see what it was. I found the NWS Warning Decision Training Branch shortly after and downloaded the exercises and information and became accustomed with the capabilities of Dual Pol Radar.

While my initial thought was 'this is nothing special', later I would become more aware of what Dual Pol could and could not do. Of course being a civilian and a Non-Meteorologists [read amateur] not being privy to the technology in use by the professionals, I am still learning. However, even to this amateur I was aware after reading and viewing the material available, early tornado detection, or should I say 'earlier' tornado detection was not one of the major benefits. While tornado detection may be some what better than previous, it is still a long way until the professional can tell you without a doubt where a tornado will form before it touches down. That is not saying they dont have a very good idea, which is why many times a tornado warning is issued and yet no tornado touches down. They are now able to tell when a tornado is more violent than previous by detecting the debris ball signature.


To further enforce my thoughts, I found this interesting post by Jenni Laflin of the National Weather Service. She lay's out clearly what Dual-Polarization Radar can and can not do. Give it a read for better understanding ... Here's a snip ... as she mentions "The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service."

Dual Polarization Radar in the Media
Posted on March 16, 2012

Over the last few months, there have been several news articles floating around the meteorological community that glorify dual-polarization radar as the savior of tornado warning lead time, which is a serious misconception that needs to be addressed. I haven’t read all of these articles, but it seems that the root of this claim lies in dual-pol’s capability to more clearly detect tornadic debris via correlation coefficient. Unfortunately, when tornadic debris is detected this means the tornado is already on the ground, doing enough damage to loft sizable particles which fall into the Mie or geometric scattering regimes. By the time this signal is returned to the radar, processed at the RDA, and appears in AWIPS, we’re already seconds to minutes past tornado touchdown; read: negative lead time. Sure, a debris signature can provide more confidence that a damaging tornado is present, but waiting for that confirmation before issuing an initial tornado warning is not only unreasonable, it’s extremely dangerous. A wonderful series of training modules on the proper use of dual-pol radar is freely available from WDTB, and emphasizes many times over the potential peril in waiting for a debris signature before making a warning decision. Dual-pol radar does not – and can not – increase lead time for tornadoes.

Continue Reading here - http://stormscalemodeling.org/?p=156

None Event - Severe Weather Threat

It could have been worse this past Thursday Midday thru Friday Morning in Georgia and Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012.

I may be guilty of an overly aggressive posture dealing with this recent threat but, if I hadn't and things went the way it was forecast, many might not have taken necessary precautions. I'll file this as a learning experience.

I knew as local meteorologist said, most severe storms would be along the gulf coast. What we didn't know was the amount of severe weather, if any, would impact the local area. As it turns out, no severe weather threatened the local area. The saving grace was atmospheric stabilization to our west. Had this not happened, it could have been as predicted locally.

There was severe weather to our west and south. It just didn't make it here.

I'm glad that severe weather was nil in the area. It could have been worse and, according to the Government meteorologist, it was supposed to be. I think they should release more frequent forecast and updates to the public during an ongoing possible severe weather event [ maybe they do and I haven't found it ]. It would save a lot of confusion and worry; after all, local mets dont break in unless severe weather is imminent to update a person. Maybe I was gun shy after having severe weather hit the local area with less mention of severe potential from the government pro's. Either way, glad I was wrong.

Not sure what this is about; see Update 2 - Severe Weather Threat Thursday / Friday - Georgia / Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012 and Severe Weather Threat Thursday / Friday - Georgia / Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012