Tropics still active - Caribbean Invest 96 - October 21 2011

Been fairly quite for the most part as far as any major tropical systems / storms. We've had a couple disturbances form in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean in the past month and a half move up into the southeast of the U.S., a low pressure system that moved through southeast Georgia and Tropical Storm Lee which spawned some severe weather and Tornadoes in the area.

The Atlantic should remain relatively quite but a system forming is not out of the question. This time of year towards the end of hurricane season, the main focus for tropical development is in the Caribbean where the waters are still quite warm. Computer models want to develop this system. Steering patterns seem to indicate a track northwest to north-northwest the next few days at a slow pace. The longer this stays out over open waters the better the chances for further development. I'll keep my eye on this invest and see if it develops into something in the coming days.

Here are a couple computer model graphics showing were it might go, should it develop.

And the latest on this via the National Hurricane Center

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Should this system develop, I'll have up dated and up to date information on the Tropical Weather Page.