Hurricane #Rafael - October 16 2012

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

As expected Rafael became a Hurricane yesterday at 6:45 PM AST with winds near 75 mph as reported by hurricane hunter aircraft. Rafael is the 17^th named storm of the 2012 hurricane season and the 9^th hurricane. The 2012 hurricane season ends on November 30^th so there's plenty of time for a few more storms.

Currently Rafael is a category 1 hurricane located about 195 miles south of Bermuda at 29.5North 64.4West with winds of 85 mph, heading rapidly at 23 mph toward the North-northeast with a central pressure of 969 mb. Hurricane force winds extend outward 35 miles and tropical storm force winds out 205 miles from the center. The center of Rafael will pass to the east of Bermuda late this evening with a turn toward the northeast along with an increase in forward speed later today or tomorrow. Rafael should begin to weaken due to strong wind shear upward of 40 kt and continue weakening as he moves into colder water becoming extratropical by Thursday.

Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches and tropical storm winds are expected across Bermuda this afternoon and evening. Life threatening surf and rip currents are anticipated along areas of Bermuda and may also impact areas along the U.S. east coast in the next couple of days.

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Tropical Storm #Rafael - October 15 2012

Not a mutant ninja .. but likely to mutate into a Hurricane today. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Bermuda.

Rafael is the 17th named system of the 2012 hurricane season. Currently located about 645 miles to the South of Bermuda at 23.0North 65.7West with winds of 70 mph and a central pressure of 985 mb, Rafael is moving at about 9 mph toward the north-northwest. A turn toward the North is anticipated today or early tomorrow and a turn toward the northeast on Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles form the storms center at this time. Tropical storm force winds may begin to impact Bermuda tomorrow. The exact track of Rafael is uncertain at this time. We urge those on the island of Bermuda to monitor this storm closely in the coming days.

Hazards associated with Rafael at this time include additional heavy rains of 1 to 3 inches over areas of the Leeward Islands with possible storm totals up to 12 inches, which may cause 'flash floods and mudslides'. Also high surf is anticipated to affect Bermuda over the coming days causing rip current conditions which may endanger life.

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TRMM Microwave Image shows the eye of Rafael wrapping up

Tropical Storm #Rafael / Tropical Depression #Patty - October 13 2012

**Bermuda should monitor Rafael closely.**

TD Patty: As mentioned in previous posts Patty is expected to become a remnant low at some time today. Patty has winds of 35 mph and is located about 280 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas 25.5North 71.9West with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Currently Patty is stationary. Movement to the west-southwest is anticipated which should continue until she dissipates. 'No Watches or Warnings in effect'.

TS Rafael: Rafael is the 17th named system of the 2012 hurricane season. Currently located about 165 miles south-southeast of St. Croix in the Virgin Islands 15.5North 63.9West with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006 mb, Rafael is moving at about 9 mph toward the northwest. A turn toward the north-northwest is anticipated later today and this will bring the center of Rafael close or over the Virgin Islands. During this time some strengthening is expected. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles at this time to the southeast side of the center. Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands and are possible around Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques tonight, and Sunday October 14. **Bermuda should monitor Rafael closely.**

Watches and Warnings:

* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante, and Martinique.

* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques.

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Tropical Storm #Patty / Invest #98L

Hurricane Hunters are on the way to have a look at Patty. They'll continue southeast and have a look at Invest98L this afternoon.

Patty is located about 275 miles to the East-Northeast of the central Bahamas at 25.5North 72.0West with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006. Patty is drifting to the northeast at about 2 mph and this is expected to continue today with a turn toward the southwest expected on Saturday. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward about 70 miles form the center. There are 'no tropical storm watches or warnings'. Patty should begin to weaken and she should become a remnant low over the weekend. As mentioned in earlier post, Patty will be short lived.

Invest98L should become the 17th named storm of the 2012 Hurricane season. When it does, it will be Rafael. It will likely be a named system later today, if not by tomorrow. This system has an 80% chance of further development. Currently the system is generally showing better organization and is likely producing 'tropical storm winds' in the outer bands. While the system continues to show an open circulation on satellite, it should close off over the weekend and strengthening is expected. Currently computer models show Tropical Storm Rafael staying off the east coast and maintaining tropical storm strength in the coming days. In the near term, a tropical storm warning may be issued for areas of the Leeward Islands. In the long term, Bermuda should be monitoring this system for possible impacts in the area.

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Tropical Storm #Joyce - August 23 2012

Tropical Storm Joyce has formed in the East Atlantic. See my earlier post on Joyce from this morning when she was still Tropical Depression Ten http://cataulagawx.blogspot.com/2012/08/TropicalDepression10-TropicalWave-August232012.html

Update August 23 2012 11 pm EDT - Joyce has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.

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Tropical Depression 10 #TD10, another Tropical Wave exits Africa

As for Tropical Depression 10 .. She is still headed West-Northwestward at 16mph with winds of 35mph and a central pressure of 1007mb. It is anticipated she will become a 'Tropical Storm' sometime today or on Friday. She will be named Joyce when that occurs. Currently situated at 13.8North 39.5West about 1045 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
She should be no threat to the U.S. mainland, but the Island of Bermuda should be watching her closely as she may impact or come close to the area. Still remains to be seen but here's the latest computer models.

Also of interest at this time is yet another tropical wave which has exited the west coast of Africa. At this time it has a 10 percent chance of further developing as it continues to head west at about 15mph. You can see this area in yellow to the right in this image.

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