Tropical Storm Emily Downgraded to Low Pressure - August 4 2011

This is the end of Emily. There is nothing left of her but a trough of low pressure. Unless she regenerates on the north side of Hispaniola she will be gone for good in another day.

Last advisory on Emily:

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011
 
...EMILY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...
  
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 75.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

For all psots related to Emily See Here

Tropical Storm Emily : Choose your Model - August 4 2011

Not being one to favor any particular model, the forecast track for tropical storm Emily is still up in the air. Tropical Storm Emily is going through menopause at this time and is having night sweats along with enhanced mood swings. One minute shes angry, the next calm.

Where will tropical storm Emily go ? Like any women only she knows. Trying to predict where or what she may do in the coming days is a loosing battle. Even the latest computer model runs are getting a headache trying to figure out what Emily will do.

In my last Emily post on August 1 2011 I mentioned:

"For Now as far as the east coast of the continental U.S. is concerned, Florida should be watching this system in earnest, especially Miami at this time."

At this time I see no reason to go against my earlier thinking. However ... you knew it was coming .... If the ridge currently in place in our area comes back east all bets are off. Emily will then re-curve and go out into the Atlantic bothering only the fish.

Tropical Strom Emily August 1 2011

Tropical Storm Emily has finally formed after waiting what seems like an eternity. For many weather buffs like myself and even those who watch weather for a living, we were overjoyed earlier this evening when the National Hurricane Center declared 91L Tropical Storm Emily. For my previous posts of waiting and discussion, see Here.

Here are the specifics as of 7 PM EDT

LOCATION...15.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Here is the projected track of TS Emily at this time via the National Hurricane Center.

If you compare this track to some of the earlier models, Emily is well west of where they thought she would be. This is in part due to Emily being delayed in forming. Earlier projections had what will eventually become Hurricane Emily crossing near Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands.
Most of the models show Tropical Storm Emily impacting Hispaniola at this time and continuing North Northwest passing by the east side of Cuba coming close to the Bahamas and continuing on towards Miami Florida. This is by no means set in stone and anything can happen and will.
For Now as far as the east coast of the continental U.S. is concerned, Florida should be watching this system in earnest, especially Miami at this time.

Here are the current tropical Storm Watches and Warnings at this time -

Tropical Storm Warnings up for:
Dominica
Guadaloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra

Tropical Storm Watches up for:
U.S. Virgin Islands
St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Haiti
and the Dominican Republic

Here are the current computer model tracks as of 9:36 PM EDT

91L - Likely Tonight/Tomorrow Tropical Depression 5 possibly TS Emily

The National Hurricane Center as of 8pm EDT July 30 2011 is giving this wave a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48hrs.

I believe from what I see, a Tropical Depression will form sometime in the early morning hours EDT. The tropical wave at this time is elongated along a west northwest to east southeast axis and still has no well-defined center. It appears there may be two areas within fighting to see which will remain. Until there is a defined center, it is hard to determine where this tropical systems track will take it. Computer models are coming more inline, but still differ enough that no one knows where it will go at this time.

This system is becoming better organized as seen from this infrared image.

Computer model forecast track -

Earlier posts on this system: here & here

Tropical Storm DON, 91L and another tropical wave

First a little about Don, which as I write [ 8:14 PM EDT 7/29/2011 ] is nearing landfall north of Brownsville Texas with winds of 50 mph. I was wrong. I said Don would make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston, Texas. That was 2 days ago, before Don took a jog on a more southerly path. Hey what do you want form an amateur. Even the pros are wrong sometimes, and no one really knows where a tropical system will go until it gets there. I'm not making excuses.

With Tropical Storm Don making landfall, I will now turn my attention to a tropical wave mentioned earlier today. This wave now called 91L is located at this time about 1100 miles East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles. As of the 8pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, this wave now has a 'well defined low pressure system' associated with it. This wave is moving 15 to 20mph and is heading westward or west- northwestward. This tropical wave is now being given a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs.

There is also another tropical wave located in the western Caribbean showing disorganized showers and thunderstorm activity, moving westward at 10 to 15moh. This wave is not forecast to become a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs and has a 0% chance of doing so.

Turning our attention back to invest 91L. Should 91L strengthen to a tropical storm, it will be known as Emily. If this happens and a name is given, Emily will be the 5th named storm of the 2011 hurricane season and also put us at having five named storms before August 1st. Near as I can find this only happened in the 2005 season. Please correct me if I'm wrong here!

Other than being upgraded as far as becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs not much has changed with this feature. Early computer models expect 91L to strengthen as it moves west northwestward in the coming week. It is early and we really have no idea what 91L will do. Intensity models vary as they will. Some, the GFD and the GHM2 strengthen 91L as much as a category 3 hurricane. Others at this time keep 91L at a category 1 and still others keep it a strong tropical storm.

Models predict this tropical system to continue on it's westward path taking it near Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands. Most of the models show this system impacting Hispaniola at this time. As mentioned computer models vary and some of them show this system re-curving back out into the Atlantic after its brief interlude with the Caribbean becoming what many call a 'fish storm' [ a fish storm only affects the fish, no land mass ]. It is early and things can and will change. This is a system to watch in the coming week.

Computer model graphic -