Tropical Storm Emily Downgraded to Low Pressure - August 4 2011

This is the end of Emily. There is nothing left of her but a trough of low pressure. Unless she regenerates on the north side of Hispaniola she will be gone for good in another day.

Last advisory on Emily:

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011
 
...EMILY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...
  
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 75.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

For all psots related to Emily See Here

Tropical Storm Emily : Choose your Model - August 4 2011

Not being one to favor any particular model, the forecast track for tropical storm Emily is still up in the air. Tropical Storm Emily is going through menopause at this time and is having night sweats along with enhanced mood swings. One minute shes angry, the next calm.

Where will tropical storm Emily go ? Like any women only she knows. Trying to predict where or what she may do in the coming days is a loosing battle. Even the latest computer model runs are getting a headache trying to figure out what Emily will do.

In my last Emily post on August 1 2011 I mentioned:

"For Now as far as the east coast of the continental U.S. is concerned, Florida should be watching this system in earnest, especially Miami at this time."

At this time I see no reason to go against my earlier thinking. However ... you knew it was coming .... If the ridge currently in place in our area comes back east all bets are off. Emily will then re-curve and go out into the Atlantic bothering only the fish.

Tropical Strom Emily August 1 2011

Tropical Storm Emily has finally formed after waiting what seems like an eternity. For many weather buffs like myself and even those who watch weather for a living, we were overjoyed earlier this evening when the National Hurricane Center declared 91L Tropical Storm Emily. For my previous posts of waiting and discussion, see Here.

Here are the specifics as of 7 PM EDT

LOCATION...15.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Here is the projected track of TS Emily at this time via the National Hurricane Center.

If you compare this track to some of the earlier models, Emily is well west of where they thought she would be. This is in part due to Emily being delayed in forming. Earlier projections had what will eventually become Hurricane Emily crossing near Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands.
Most of the models show Tropical Storm Emily impacting Hispaniola at this time and continuing North Northwest passing by the east side of Cuba coming close to the Bahamas and continuing on towards Miami Florida. This is by no means set in stone and anything can happen and will.
For Now as far as the east coast of the continental U.S. is concerned, Florida should be watching this system in earnest, especially Miami at this time.

Here are the current tropical Storm Watches and Warnings at this time -

Tropical Storm Warnings up for:
Dominica
Guadaloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra

Tropical Storm Watches up for:
U.S. Virgin Islands
St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Haiti
and the Dominican Republic

Here are the current computer model tracks as of 9:36 PM EDT