White Christmas in Cataula Georgia

Final Update - 8:19 PM 12/26/2010: White Christmas in Georgia

Here at the homestead, in west central Georgia, we had our first white Christmas. It came late, starting around 7:30 pm and ending by 9:30 pm. We ended with anywhere from a quarter to a half inch of snow. Here's a pic:

Here is why this was a historic event, via National Weather Service - Peachtree City, GA: Climatology for Christmas Day

Although we have had very cold Christmases, records show that White Christmases are rare in Georgia. The only locations that have received measurable snowfall are Atlanta and Athens, although Columbus had a trace of snow in 1970. Macon has never seen snow on Christmas day.

Record Precipitation for December 25
	Atlanta	Athens	Macon	Columbus
Precipitation (inches)	2.06	2.52	2.68	3.32
Year	1945	1945	1964	1964

Although we have had very cold Christmases, records show that White Christmases are rare in Georgia. The only locations that have received measurable snowfall are Atlanta and Athens, although Columbus had a trace of snow in 1970. Macon has never seen snow on Christmas day.

Snowfall on December 25
	Atlanta	Athens	Macon	Columbus
Number of Days snowfall = 0.1"	2	1	0	0
Number of Days snowfall = Trace	13	1	0	1

Record Snowfall on December 25
	Atlanta	Athens	Macon	Columbus
Snow Amount	1.6	0.2	0	Trace
Year of Occurence	1881	1993	-	1970

____________________

Update 3 - 4:01 AM 12/24/2010: Snow in #Georgia

It's Christmas eve, Snow is on the way, but you know that. This is a quick update as I've yet to check the models this morning. My thinking is still on track with what I've already said [see below]. Wont change a thing. I'll throw this snow forecast map in for now. Notice the area covered is inline with the map below that I drew a red line on, where I think snow will fall.

Check back later for updates....
____________________

Update 2 - 4:30 PM ET 12/22/2010

This storm is looking more and more like a southern thang. Sorry to those of you farther north.

via National Weather Service Peachtree City,GA

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A TIMING
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT ONLY BY 6-12 HOURS. THE GFS IS A
BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF SO HAVE DONE A BIT OF A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO. CURRENTLY MAIN LOW CENTER IS JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN LOW
CENTER REDEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY 06Z-12Z SAT THEN MOVES
EAST ACROSS FL AND EVENTUALLY MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF SAT IT
DEVELOPS A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...DOWN THROUGH N GA AND OVER TO LOUISIANA. THIS PLUME MOVES
SOUTH THOUGH GA SAT/SAT NIGHT BRINGING RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN TO
THE AREA. N GA CAN EXPECT SNOW WITH SOUTH GA GETTING MOSTLY RAIN AND
A MIXTURE IN BETWEEN. THIS EVENT IS STILL THREE DAYS AWAY SO WE DONT
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION JUST YET BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE NORTH GEORGIA WILL SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA (NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE).
AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA IT MOVES RAPIDLY UP THE EAST COAST AND
DOES NOT ALLOW MUCH BACKSIDE MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. WILL STILL KEEP IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS N GA FOR SUN MORNING WITH JUST FLURRIES
EXPECTED. AFTER SUN...ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY
THROUGH DAY 7. TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT MON WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPS EXPECTED BY WED.

When they post snow amounts like this for Georgia, from past experience, you can double the amounts, sometimes triple them.

Here's a nice animation of what may occur:

Via shelbyweather.blogspot
As far as snow amounts: its too far out to predict. In short, I'll say "a lot" is likely. I'll give more updates as needed on this developing situation.
Here is an animation depicting what the European Model is suggesting: I'd expect minor deviations but this is a rough idea beginning with Christmas Eve and ending the Day after Christmas.

Check back later for updates....
____________________

Update 1:

First a word of caution: Things can change and, 'I'm not a meteorologist'.

At this time everything is still on track for snow in the southeast and deep south. The storm that is coming reminds me of the super storm of 93. I know, I say that all the time when a storm like this heads for the south. Well, there is good reason for that. For snow to happen in the deep south the setup and dynamics of said storms usually happen this way. The difference between a super storm, a cold rain or even just snow in the deep south is a fine line.

OK .... I'm excited .. pumped ... adrenaline is way to much ... but this could be huge. As usual, I nor anyone else at this time knows the exact track of this system. I will stick to what I said earlier in the original post [see below].

Here's a recent snow map from the pro's at Accuweather. I drew in a red line as to my thinking. Thinking they don't have the system far enough south or as strong as I see it. Who knows. Still a couple days out.

I don't know if this will be a super storm. I do know some folks in the southeast are going to get pounded. Here's the 'Storm of the Century' from 1993':





Satellite Loop




Check back later for more...

______________________

Original Post:

It appears from many of the models that a white Christmas will be in store for many in the southeast, including the deep south. BUT, as stated in the title, It's still early.

Right now the models are showing a decent storm moving through the area, depending on timing, Dec. 24 thru the 26. Some areas will get pounded if the models hold true. Even areas like Atlanta, GA could see 3-6" of the flaky whit stuff, not including the local residents. [LOL] And even snow as far south as central Georgia. Some are saying even Florida could see a little flurry action in the panhandle area.

Things can change and they usually do when we are still this far out, 3-5 days. However most of the models at this time are in agreement. Still, they will change.

Check back for updates...